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What this means. A wallet put $20.4k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 33% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$20.4k
BUY Yes @ 33¢ · 62,012 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Fresh walletOther
What happened
Wallet 0xd9cb…92b1 took Yes (buy) for $20.4k at an average 33¢. At that price the market implied a 33% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $20.4k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Fresh wallet (new or ≤5 markets)+2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 33¢ means
33%chance the market gave
+204American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 33¢
- Implied odds
- 32.9%
- Size
- $20.4k
- Placed
- Feb 28, 13:47 EST
- Market close
- Mar 30, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0xd9cb…92b1
- Tx
- 0x54dde506…
This wallet's graded record
0/2-32.1 pts
expected 0.6 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $99.9k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $17.8k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $60.4k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $369.4k 9.9× usual |
excluded |