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0x6d77…b72c

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did +6.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+6.0 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
1.8
Flagged volume
$4.28M
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$194.1k
Last 30 days −$0 · $45.51M volume · 17,858 trades · since Nov 28, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
−$154.1k
Open P&L · 40 positions
−$77.8k
Closed-position win rate
58%
129 closed
Wallet age · markets
330d
104 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other321.8+6.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 49¢ $11.1k51% 264d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?MED SELL No @ 87¢ $31.1k13% 264d agocalled
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $82.7k
2.9× usual
0% 264d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ $115.6k
4.1× usual
0% 268d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW SELL Yes @ 72¢ $22.2k28% 269d agomissed
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 73¢ $13.1k73% 271d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.5¢ $75.1k
2.7× usual
98% 273d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.2¢ $11.9k98% 275d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 59¢ $14.7k59% 275d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW SELL No @ 84¢ $11.7k16% 275d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 97¢ $71.7k
2.5× usual
3% 276d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY No @ 81¢ $12.9k81% 276d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?MED SELL No @ 75¢ $65.8k
2.3× usual
25% 276d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 71¢ $31.9k71% 277d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 95.8¢ $11.4k4% 278d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 95.9¢ $67.9k
2.4× usual
96% 279d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 95.7¢ $43.0k96% 279d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $15.4k86% 279d agomissed
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL No @ 95.8¢ $30.2k4% 280d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 83¢ $16.7k83% 281d agocalled
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 94.1¢ $20.6k6% 282d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?MED BUY Yes @ 23¢ $35.9k23% 282d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?MED BUY No @ 79¢ $69.1k
2.4× usual
79% 282d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 21¢ $26.8k79% 282d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 23¢ $21.7k23% 282d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢ $21.9k95% 282d agocalled
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL No @ 95.5¢ $46.7k4% 282d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 56¢ $16.6k56% 283d agomissed
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 96.2¢ $41.2k96% 283d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 20¢ $10.6k20% 283d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 95.5¢ $16.8k95% 283d agocalled
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 95.1¢ $39.8k95% 283d agocalled
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL No @ 94.6¢ $31.1k5% 283d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 94.2¢ $19.5k94% 284d agocalled
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL No @ 95.9¢ $49.5k4% 285d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ $13.9k40% 285d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 81¢ $39.1k81% 285d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 19¢ $23.3k19% 285d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 80¢ $48.1k80% 285d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 95.9¢ $27.3k4% 285d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 80¢ $17.4k80% 287d agocalled
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $99.7k
3.5× usual
100% 287d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $149.6k
5.3× usual
100% 287d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $39.8k100% 287d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 96.4¢ $37.7k4% 287d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?HIGH BUY Yes @ 93.3¢ $313.1k
11.1× usual
93% 287d agocalled
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 95.8¢ $166.0k
5.9× usual
96% 287d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 81¢ $17.0k81% 288d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 92¢ $87.3k
3.1× usual
8% 288d agomissed
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 72¢ $22.3k72% 288d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 92¢ $68.7k
2.4× usual
8% 288d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 92¢ $230.2k
8.2× usual
92% 288d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 91¢ $388.8k
13.8× usual
91% 289d agocalled
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 91¢ $276.4k
9.8× usual
91% 289d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?MED BUY No @ 90¢ $34.5k90% 291d agocalled
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $20.0k0% 292d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 9¢ $10.5k91% 292d agocalled
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $19.9k100% 295d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $117.4k
4.2× usual
99% 296d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 14¢ $10.1k14% 298d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 13¢ $38.3k13% 301d agomissed
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 12¢ $12.6k12% 301d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 87¢ $24.8k13% 302d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 87¢ $16.4k13% 302d agomissed
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $42.2k86% 304d agocalled
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $98.5k
3.5× usual
98% 304d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 18¢ $13.1k18% 305d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ $30.2k77% 308d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ $50.7k77% 308d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ $33.7k76% 308d agocalled
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 79¢ $33.9k79% 308d agocalled
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 74¢ $10.6k74% 309d agocalled
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ $30.6k99% 309d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 74¢ $19.2k74% 309d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 25¢ $25.2k25% 309d agomissed
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 21¢ $10.8k79% 310d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 24¢ $19.6k24% 310d agomissed
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 21¢ $29.2k21% 310d agomissed
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 22¢ $14.6k78% 311d agocalled
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 96.3¢ $21.8k96% 311d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 24¢ $12.6k24% 311d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ $10.8k77% 312d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 76¢ $71.9k
2.5× usual
24% 312d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ $78.4k
2.8× usual
77% 313d agocalled
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 79¢ $16.1k79% 317d agocalled
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $10.9k99% 318d agoexcluded

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