numbernine

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +1.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?+$6,749Yes · avg 48¢ → 64¢ · $27.7k Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?+$603Yes · avg 89¢ → 94.5¢ · $10.4k · 1 proven with, 0 against Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?+$552Yes · avg 22¢ → 24¢ · $8,645 Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?+$734Yes · avg 64¢ → 72¢ · $6,333 Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?−$52Yes · avg 20¢ → 20¢ · $2,045 Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?−$219Yes · avg 24¢ → 21¢ · $1,478 Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?−$298Yes · avg 13¢ → 11¢ · $1,281 Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?−$37Yes · avg 14¢ → 14¢ · $997

Price-adjusted edge

+1.9 pts

Called / graded

1/4

Expected from price

0.9

Flagged volume

$136.7k

Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.1 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$26.5k

Last 30 days +$4,108 · $3.53M volume · 1,752 trades · since Mar 12, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$123.0k

Open P&L · 61 positions

−$140.3k

Closed-position win rate

65%

109 closed

Wallet age · markets

956d

176 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	2	1	0.7	+15.8 pts
Other	2	0	0.2	-12.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢	$14.2k	80%	87d ago	excluded
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢	$10.7k	53%	127d ago	missed
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	LOW BUY Yes @ 48¢	$16.8k	48%	129d ago	excluded
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$10.0k	0%	171d ago	excluded
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 15¢	$15.5k	15%	179d ago	called
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.5¢	$34.3k 2.5× usual	1%	201d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 55¢	$13.5k	55%	205d ago	called
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	LOW SELL Yes @ 81¢	$10.5k	19%	224d ago	missed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW SELL Yes @ 95¢	$11.2k	5%	237d ago	missed

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY Yes @ 80¢$14.2k

LOW numbernine · 87d ago

Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?missed

BUY Yes @ 53¢$10.7k

LOW numbernine · 127d ago

Will France win on 2026-06-16?excluded

BUY Yes @ 48¢$16.8k

LOW numbernine · 129d ago

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$10.0k

LOW numbernine · 171d ago

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

BUY Yes @ 15¢$15.5k

LOW numbernine · 179d ago

US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.5¢$34.3k

LOW numbernine · 201d ago

US forces enter Iran by April 30?called

BUY Yes @ 55¢$13.5k

LOW numbernine · 205d ago

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?missed

SELL Yes @ 81¢$10.5k

LOW numbernine · 224d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?missed

SELL Yes @ 95¢$11.2k

LOW numbernine · 237d ago

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