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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.5 wins, so it did -15.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-15.0 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
1.5
Flagged volume
$63.0k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1,309
Last 30 days −$0 · $661.6k volume · 1,373 trades · since Dec 07, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$16.8k
Open P&L · 21 positions
−$19.5k
Closed-position win rate
87%
95 closed
Wallet age · markets
321d
111 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 1 | 1.5 | -15.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 91¢ | $12.5k | missed |
 US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ | $22.8k | excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 80¢ | $16.0k | called |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 56¢ | $11.7k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x80458a…