tourists

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 13 of 14. The prices it paid implied about 11.2 wins, so it did +13.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 14 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +11.3 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House+$2,150No · avg 90.5¢ → 92.5¢ · $101.7k Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?+$3,039No · avg 93.1¢ → 96.3¢ · $90.7k Will GameStop acquire eBay?+$1,307No · avg 92.4¢ → 94¢ · $77.4k Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?+$100No · avg 72¢ → 72¢ · $58.0k · 1 proven with, 0 against Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?−$945No · avg 65¢ → 64¢ · $50.4k Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?−$183Yes · avg 64¢ → 64¢ · $47.3k Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?−$107No · avg 82¢ → 82¢ · $31.5k Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?+$745No · avg 78¢ → 80¢ · $23.5k · 1 proven with, 0 against

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

No · Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Same side: 1 proven · 0 losing Other side: 0 proven · 0 losing

Price-adjusted edge

+13.0 pts

Called / graded

13/14

Expected from price

11.2

Flagged volume

$6.53M

Sample size14 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.2 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$39k

14 graded bets in the order they resolved · 13 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? at 64¢) and the edge is +11.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

0–20¢

0% vs 12% · n=1

60–80¢

100% vs 73% · n=3

80–100¢

100% vs 89% · n=10

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$632.1k

Last 30 days +$11.0k · $67.28M volume · 34,824 trades · since May 12, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	1	1	0.9	+8.1 pts
Politics	3	3	2.7	+9.9 pts
Other	9	8	6.6	+15.5 pts
Economy	1	1	0.9	+5.0 pts

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	LOW BUY No @ 73¢	$14.6k	73%	10h ago	pending
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 96.3¢	$17.5k	96%	10h ago	pending
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	LOW BUY No @ 71¢	$17.8k	71%	1d ago	pending
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	MED BUY Yes @ 96¢	$55.6k 2.7× usual	96%	33d ago	called
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢	$33.9k	82%	35d ago	called
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢	$17.0k	99%	66d ago	excluded
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$22.2k	100%	71d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	LOW BUY No @ 87¢	$24.7k	87%	78d ago	called
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 77¢	$13.4k	77%	78d ago	called
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢	$24.9k	86%	81d ago	called
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$10.8k	100%	86d ago	excluded
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$140.9k 6.8× usual	0%	87d ago	excluded
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$139.9k 6.8× usual	100%	88d ago	excluded
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$113.0k 5.5× usual	0%	94d ago	excluded
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢	$11.2k	95%	96d ago	called
France vs. England: Team to Win	LOW SELL England @ 99.9¢	$44.9k 2.2× usual	0%	97d ago	excluded
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 91.9¢	$19.6k	92%	100d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢	$13.7k	95%	100d ago	called
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	LOW BUY No @ 92.4¢	$23.4k	92%	107d ago	called
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 83¢	$31.3k	83%	108d ago	called
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 78¢	$14.7k	78%	108d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	MED BUY No @ 93¢	$133.2k 6.5× usual	93%	125d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW BUY No @ 80¢	$10.6k	80%	128d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$31.7k	100%	128d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 96.2¢	$13.6k	96%	130d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	MED SELL Yes @ 75¢	$32.5k	25%	131d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢	$15.0k	75%	131d ago	called
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW SELL No @ 96.7¢	$17.9k	3%	134d ago	excluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 91¢	$11.8k	9%	136d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$216.7k 10.5× usual	100%	142d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$33.3k	100%	142d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢	$40.6k	99%	143d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢	$29.7k	99%	143d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢	$11.8k	1%	144d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$13.5k	0%	144d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW BUY No @ 64¢	$26.1k	64%	147d ago	called
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	LOW BUY No @ 98¢	$14.7k	98%	158d ago	excluded
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	LOW SELL No @ 98.5¢	$10.1k	1%	159d ago	excluded
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢	$20.3k	98%	159d ago	excluded
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢	$20.7k	98%	160d ago	excluded
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢	$20.6k	98%	160d ago	excluded
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢	$19.9k	0%	161d ago	excluded
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢	$14.0k	0%	165d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$1.27M 61.6× usual	100%	167d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$231.0k 11.2× usual	100%	168d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢	$59.7k 2.9× usual	1%	176d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢	$12.7k	99%	185d ago	excluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	MED SELL Yes @ 99.7¢	$149.0k 7.2× usual	0%	190d ago	excluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$112.1k 5.4× usual	0%	190d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW SELL Yes @ 98.7¢	$24.7k	1%	190d ago	excluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 92.9¢	$12.5k	93%	190d ago	excluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢	$13.6k	60%	192d ago	called
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢	$14.8k	99%	194d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW SELL Yes @ 76¢	$13.8k	24%	195d ago	excluded
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	LOW BUY No @ 97.7¢	$11.8k	98%	195d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢	$63.0k 3.1× usual	0%	199d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 97.2¢	$192.5k 9.3× usual	97%	199d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.3¢	$84.5k 4.1× usual	1%	199d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	MED SELL Yes @ 93¢	$26.6k	7%	199d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	MED SELL Yes @ 99¢	$146.3k 7.1× usual	1%	199d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.5¢	$86.9k 4.2× usual	1%	202d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW SELL Yes @ 97.4¢	$32.6k	3%	202d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	MED BUY Yes @ 96.7¢	$57.3k 2.8× usual	97%	202d ago	called
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW SELL Yes @ 92¢	$15.2k	8%	202d ago	missed
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	MED SELL Yes @ 88¢	$29.3k	12%	203d ago	missed
Netanyahu out by April 30?	LOW SELL No @ 98.3¢	$22.3k	2%	205d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW SELL Yes @ 66¢	$13.4k	34%	207d ago	missed
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$90.5k 4.4× usual	0%	207d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW SELL No @ 80¢	$17.9k	20%	208d ago	missed
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 98.6¢	$19.7k	1%	214d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99¢	$59.6k 2.9× usual	99%	215d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW SELL No @ 88¢	$24.7k	12%	215d ago	missed
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW SELL No @ 76¢	$17.1k	24%	215d ago	missed
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 79¢	$11.1k	21%	215d ago	missed
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 73¢	$15.0k	27%	219d ago	missed
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 94.7¢	$19.2k	95%	223d ago	called
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 57¢	$11.0k	57%	228d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW BUY No @ 62¢	$13.5k	62%	234d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW SELL No @ 64¢	$13.6k	36%	235d ago	missed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW SELL Yes @ 96.3¢	$19.3k	4%	237d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW SELL Yes @ 97¢	$32.0k	3%	237d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	MED BUY Yes @ 96.1¢	$92.4k 4.5× usual	96%	237d ago	excluded
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$55.8k 2.7× usual	0%	237d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢	$15.7k	79%	237d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW BUY No @ 74¢	$36.1k	74%	237d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 98.5¢	$25.6k	1%	238d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 95¢	$33.9k	95%	238d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 84¢	$14.9k	84%	238d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$186.1k 9.0× usual	0%	262d ago	excluded
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$99.8k 4.8× usual	100%	262d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 74¢	$13.4k	26%	262d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 76¢	$12.1k	76%	263d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 95.8¢	$23.3k	4%	265d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 94.2¢	$28.2k	94%	266d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	MED SELL Yes @ 95.4¢	$60.6k 2.9× usual	5%	266d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢	$71.3k 3.5× usual	95%	266d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 93¢	$11.2k	7%	266d ago	missed
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢	$12.9k	79%	270d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED SELL No @ 94¢	$62.8k 3.0× usual	6%	272d ago	missed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99¢	$26.5k	1%	272d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 96.7¢	$18.2k	3%	273d ago	missed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 98.2¢	$67.7k 3.3× usual	2%	275d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 77¢	$10.2k	23%	276d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 83¢	$10.7k	83%	276d ago	called
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 85¢	$13.8k	85%	280d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 94.7¢	$11.4k	5%	282d ago	missed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 79¢	$50.7k 2.5× usual	79%	282d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 93.1¢	$26.5k	93%	284d ago	called
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢	$54.1k 2.6× usual	99%	294d ago	excluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$226.6k 11.0× usual	0%	294d ago	excluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢	$19.8k	99%	296d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	MED SELL No @ 99.9¢	$126.9k 6.2× usual	0%	317d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 92.1¢	$18.1k	92%	353d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 90.9¢	$14.4k	91%	354d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 91.9¢	$20.8k	92%	354d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	HIGH SELL Yes @ 91¢	$114.8k 5.6× usual	9%	354d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED SELL Yes @ 93.5¢	$31.2k	7%	357d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 91¢	$18.2k	91%	359d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 92.2¢	$19.2k	8%	367d ago	missed
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW SELL No @ 93¢	$19.4k	7%	367d ago	missed
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW SELL No @ 92¢	$18.4k	8%	371d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 89¢	$17.9k	89%	372d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 89¢	$11.1k	89%	372d ago	called
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 93¢	$10.9k	93%	372d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	LOW SELL No @ 87¢	$11.6k	13%	375d ago	excluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	MED SELL No @ 93¢	$27.9k	7%	400d ago	missed
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW SELL No @ 93¢	$12.8k	7%	406d ago	missed
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 87¢	$25.5k	87%	455d ago	called

tourists

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