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Weekly report card

Week 2026-14

Mar 30, 00:00 EDT – Apr 05, 23:59 EDT · markets that resolved this week

Price-adjusted edge
-0.6 pts
Called
276/438
Expected from price
278.7
Std. error
±1.6

In week 2026-14, 438 graded flags resolved. The flagged side won 276 times; entry prices implied 278.7. Whales did no better than the price (-0.6 pts). One week is a small sample.

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other354232230.8+0.3 pts
Sports462325.3-5.1 pts
Crypto321718.7-5.2 pts
Politics643.9+1.4 pts

Every graded flag

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWalletWhenResult
US forces enter Iran by March 31?MED BUY No @ 82¢ $246.0k
2.7× usual
82% kingofthe5213d agocalled
Netanyahu out by March 31?MED BUY No @ 96.5¢ $206.0k
3.1× usual
97% BrazilianMemer222d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?MED BUY No @ 86¢ $190.7k
10.3× usual
86% Arbguy232d agocalled
Netanyahu out by March 31?MED BUY No @ 95.6¢ $152.6k96% Official-Market-Maker221d agocalled
Netanyahu out by March 31?HIGH BUY Yes @ 4.6¢ $152.2k5% dududududu22 NEW221d agomissed
Spurs vs. ClippersMED BUY Spurs @ 46¢ $145.2k46% cicade204d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?HIGH BUY No @ 87¢ $133.1k
5.8× usual
87% GoriIIa PROVEN230d agocalled
Spurs vs. ClippersMED BUY Clippers @ 55¢ $132.5k55% Feveey204d agomissed
Ducks vs. SharksMED BUY Ducks @ 49¢ $130.8k
3.0× usual
49% Mosley1205d agomissed
Ducks vs. SharksMED BUY Sharks @ 51¢ $127.1k
4.4× usual
51% CemeterySun205d agocalled
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?MED BUY No @ 92.9¢ $124.6k93% kingofthe5213d agocalled
Netanyahu out by March 31?MED BUY No @ 97¢ $114.9k97% BrazilianMemer222d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?HIGH SELL No @ 73¢ $113.8k
3.4× usual
27% 0x090a…01b4257d agomissed
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-03?MED BUY Yes @ 56¢ $109.0k56% therighteousdog203d agocalled
Netanyahu out by March 31?MED BUY No @ 96¢ $104.9k
3.3× usual
96% Protruder221d agocalled
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?MED BUY No @ 92.3¢ $101.8k92% kingofthe5213d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?MED BUY No @ 86¢ $100.1k
5.4× usual
86% Arbguy232d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 88¢ $100.0k88% PowerClaw214d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 85¢ $100.0k85% PowerClaw211d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?MED BUY Yes @ 20¢ $97.7k
6.8× usual
20% BlueOrchid235d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by March 31?MED SELL No @ 67¢ $93.7k
3.8× usual
33% 0x5ecd…0787208d agomissed
Netanyahu out by March 31?MED BUY No @ 94.1¢ $92.9k94% Labtrador222d agocalled
Spurs vs. ClippersMED BUY Clippers @ 51¢ $90.2k
2.1× usual
51% Countryside204d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $85.7k
4.4× usual
86% betwick232d agocalled
Netanyahu out by March 31?MED BUY No @ 96.7¢ $83.3k97% niskahq NEW220d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?MED BUY No @ 90.9¢ $83.1k
2.4× usual
91% aff3 PROVEN229d agocalled
Netanyahu out by March 31?MED BUY No @ 97¢ $82.9k
2.7× usual
97% 0xb9d8…275a220d agocalled
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?MED BUY Yes @ 67¢ $75.1k67% How.Dare.You223d agomissed
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 96.7¢ $74.2k
4.2× usual
97% yungstalin218d agocalled
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 95.2¢ $73.7k95% jeffy33209d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 95.9¢ $71.7k
3.4× usual
96% Dktb227d agocalled
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 93.9¢ $70.2k
3.5× usual
94% jocpolitic222d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 78¢ $70.2k
3.3× usual
78% alealeg216d agocalled
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?LOW BUY Yes @ 95.9¢ $66.8k96% sllsss229d agomissed
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?MED BUY No @ 82¢ $61.9k
2.6× usual
82% 0x8b4b…541b PROVEN229d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?MED BUY No @ 79¢ $61.7k
2.1× usual
79% PolBandit236d agocalled
Wizards vs. HeatLOW BUY Heat @ 95¢ $60.0k
2.9× usual
95% elkmonkey202d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?MED SELL No @ 74¢ $59.9k
3.3× usual
26% wan123236d agomissed
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢ $57.5k95% IlIIllIIIllIIl229d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?MED SELL No @ 91.5¢ $56.4k8% 0x889e…09e0255d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?MED SELL No @ 95.1¢ $55.0k
2.4× usual
5% anoin123225d agomissed
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $54.6k
2.3× usual
95% schizohedgehog219d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 76¢ $54.5k76% Merlin11111217d agocalled
Netanyahu out by March 31?MED SELL No @ 95.1¢ $52.8k5% Lily.Phillips220d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 87¢ $52.4k87% DonaldinhoTrumpito231d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 92.3¢ $51.7k92% propescia208d agocalled
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 93.9¢ $50.5k
2.6× usual
94% betwick222d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?MED BUY Yes @ 16¢ $50.0k16% 0x8fba…433a234d agomissed
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 94.5¢ $47.2k
2.4× usual
94% betwick233d agocalled
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 94.2¢ $47.1k94% scout222d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by March 31?MED BUY Yes @ 25¢ $45.9k
2.3× usual
25% Cinibengales224d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by March 31?MED BUY No @ 68¢ $43.0k68% gaba4228d agocalled
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?LOW BUY Yes @ 88¢ $42.8k88% How.Dare.You222d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 93.8¢ $42.8k
3.3× usual
94% 0xd359…6007207d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by March 31?MED BUY No @ 83¢ $42.6k83% Merlin11111217d agocalled
Spurs vs. ClippersMED BUY Clippers @ 50¢ $42.3k50% AppleTime67204d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $42.1k96% jwp9999220d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by March 31?MED BUY No @ 84¢ $42.0k84% Erasmus. PROVEN210d agocalled
Netanyahu out by March 31?MED BUY No @ 95.9¢ $41.8k96% Anjun221d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ $41.4k97% Dripx218d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?MED SELL No @ 94.2¢ $41.3k6% anoin123226d agomissed
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-03?MED BUY Yes @ 56¢ $40.9k56% Seasensez203d agocalled
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $40.6k86% 0x006c…16ea216d agocalled
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 97¢ $39.2k97% jocpolitic219d agocalled
Spurs vs. ClippersMED BUY Clippers @ 54¢ $38.4k54% elkmonkey204d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 87¢ $38.2k87% betforthewin213d agocalled
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 93.8¢ $37.9k94% CongMingLabs222d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 87¢ $37.6k87% DonaldinhoTrumpito232d agocalled
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?MED BUY No @ 92.7¢ $37.6k
2.1× usual
93% yungstalin211d agocalled
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?MED SELL No @ 86¢ $37.5k14% edenmoon215d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?MED BUY No @ 90.6¢ $37.3k91% GoriIIa PROVEN239d agocalled
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ $36.9k77% finnaoffmyself229d agomissed
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 92.3¢ $36.9k92% AngryRhino235d agocalled
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?LOW BUY No @ 80¢ $36.7k
3.0× usual
80% timebrotime224d agocalled
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?MED SELL No @ 91.8¢ $36.7k8% hild227d agomissed
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?LOW BUY No @ 70¢ $36.6k70% 0x2a2c…9bc1226d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by March 31?MED SELL No @ 75¢ $36.1k25% anoin123225d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 95.6¢ $35.8k96% tutrucks224d agocalled
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?MED BUY No @ 89¢ $34.5k89% Wickier217d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 69¢ $34.5k69% trevors4219d agocalled
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 90¢ $33.9k90% yungstalin218d agocalled
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $33.9k92% Wickier211d agocalled
Spurs vs. ClippersMED BUY Clippers @ 41¢ $33.7k41% ZaraLen204d agomissed
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04?MED BUY No @ 56¢ $33.6k56% gransaaa LOSING203d agomissed
Spurs vs. ClippersLOW BUY Clippers @ 39¢ $33.3k39% 0x6e82…752c205d agomissed
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-03?LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ $33.3k57% gransaaa LOSING204d agocalled
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 94.5¢ $33.0k94% Dripx233d agocalled
Trump out as President by March 31?MED SELL No @ 96.5¢ $32.8k3% uycghj4266d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 84¢ $32.6k84% DonaldinhoTrumpito234d agocalled
Spurs vs. ClippersLOW BUY Clippers @ 42¢ $32.6k42% spx11204d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?MED BUY No @ 90.8¢ $32.4k91% GoriIIa PROVEN239d agocalled
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?MED BUY No @ 96.9¢ $32.3k97% 0x5bff…ffbe228d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 84¢ $31.9k84% Ume-Chang210d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?MED BUY No @ 89¢ $31.4k89% aff3 PROVEN238d agocalled
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 95.9¢ $31.0k96% inrock30220d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?MED BUY No @ 96.5¢ $30.8k97% binance-newbie218d agocalled
Spurs vs. ClippersLOW BUY Clippers @ 53¢ $30.7k53% 0x0c15…9a45204d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?MED SELL No @ 95.2¢ $30.5k5% Sickasulu224d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 74¢ $30.1k74% niaidahoda4859725219d agocalled
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?LOW BUY No @ 93.9¢ $30.0k
2.0× usual
94% flydartball229d agocalled

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Yesterday's biggest flags and how they graded. Misses included.