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−$500Yes · avg 28¢ → 28¢ · $27.5k · 0 proven with, 1 against−$7,901Yes · avg 21¢ → 5.5¢ · $2,782
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 19. The prices it paid implied about 6.3 wins, so it did -22.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 19 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-22.5 pts
Called / graded
2/19
Expected from price
6.3
Flagged volume
$439.7k
Sample size19 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$358k19 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US forces enter Iran by April 30? at 84¢) and the edge is -24.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 13% · n=3
20–40¢
0% vs 30% · n=14
80–100¢
100% vs 85% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.19M
Last 30 days −$1,546 · $8.40M volume · 4,860 trades · since Mar 05, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$25.9k
Open P&L · 10 positions
−$1.21M
Closed-position win rate
67%
3 closed
Wallet age · markets
233d
12 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 19 | 2 | 6.3 | -22.5 pts |
History
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