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What this means. A wallet put $45.9k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 25% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 19 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$45.9k
BUY Yes @ 25¢ · 181,055 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog side2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)2.3× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet Cinibengales took Yes (buy) for $45.9k at an average 25¢. At that price the market implied a 25% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $45.9k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 25¢ means
25%chance the market gave
+294American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 25¢
- Implied odds
- 25.4%
- Size
- $45.9k
- Placed
- Mar 13, 07:55 EDT
- Market close
- Mar 30, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Cinibengales
- Tx
- 0x51c66c2d…
This wallet's graded record
2/19-22.5 pts
expected 6.3 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $47.6k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $41.2k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $249.8k 9.3× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $97.4k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $48.8k 2.4× usual |
excluded |