← Wallets
+$2,222No · avg 90¢ → 91.5¢ · $135.5k+$1,169Yes · avg 90¢ → 91.5¢ · $71.3k+$100No · avg 63¢ → 63¢ · $32.3k+$75Yes · avg 63¢ → 64¢ · $9,520+$193No · avg 76¢ → 80¢ · $4,727+$338Yes · avg 25¢ → 28¢ · $2,447+$92No · avg 55¢ → 66¢ · $581+$66Yes · avg 17¢ → 21¢ · $344
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 11. The prices it paid implied about 7.2 wins, so it did -2.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-2.2 pts
Called / graded
7/11
Expected from price
7.2
Flagged volume
$1.05M
Sample size11 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$67k11 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? at 70¢) and the edge is -5.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 26% · n=3
40–60¢
0% vs 50% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 71% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 91% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.15M
Last 30 days +$2,330 · $24.42M volume · 17,362 trades · since Jul 22, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$2.16M
Open P&L · 56 positions
−$442.1k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
824d
997 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | +20.2 pts |
| Other | 8 | 5 | 5.4 | -4.7 pts |
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -27.0 pts |
History
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