aff3

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 22 of 23. The prices it paid implied about 20.5 wins, so it did +6.5 pts better than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (+6.5 pts over 23 bets). Without its single best bet: +5.9 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?+$29.2kNo · avg 84¢ → 94.5¢ · $262.9k Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?+$3,354No · avg 93¢ → 94.5¢ · $214.5k · 1 proven with, 0 against Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$1,803Yes · avg 88¢ → 91.5¢ · $52.0k Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?−$940No · avg 85¢ → 81¢ · $19.0k Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?+$289No · avg 95.8¢ → 97.4¢ · $18.0k Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?+$498No · avg 92.5¢ → 96.1¢ · $13.5k Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?−$91No · avg 85¢ → 82¢ · $3,015 · 1 proven with, 0 against Lindsay Clancy sentenced to prison time in 2026?+$147No · avg 92¢ → 97.2¢ · $2,745

Price-adjusted edge

+6.5 pts

Called / graded

22/23

Expected from price

20.5

Flagged volume

$3.39M

Sample size23 graded

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±5.6 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$37k

23 graded bets in the order they resolved · 22 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 80¢) and the edge is +5.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

0–20¢

0% vs 18% · n=1

60–80¢

100% vs 80% · n=1

80–100¢

100% vs 93% · n=21

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$298.6k

Last 30 days +$19.6k · $16.54M volume · 4,827 trades · since May 26, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	4	3	2.8	+4.5 pts
Politics	3	3	2.8	+7.1 pts
Other	16	16	14.9	+7.0 pts

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 99.3¢	$287.4k 8.1× usual	99%	94d ago	excluded
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	MED BUY No @ 91¢	$29.3k	91%	95d ago	called
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	LOW BUY No @ 94.1¢	$11.6k	94%	104d ago	called
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 7¢	$10.4k	93%	116d ago	called
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 20¢	$16.9k	80%	117d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	MED SELL No @ 99.1¢	$91.6k 2.6× usual	1%	133d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢	$93.5k 2.6× usual	99%	144d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢	$77.0k 2.2× usual	98%	152d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢	$60.8k	0%	152d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢	$60.5k	99%	157d ago	excluded
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED BUY Yes @ 18¢	$14.3k	18%	160d ago	missed
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢	$14.3k	99%	165d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$65.5k	100%	165d ago	excluded
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	LOW SELL No @ 57¢	$22.5k	43%	168d ago	missed
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	MED BUY No @ 96¢	$144.0k 4.1× usual	96%	171d ago	called
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	LOW BUY No @ 73¢	$21.9k	73%	178d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢	$89.6k 2.5× usual	98%	182d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	LOW BUY No @ 97.2¢	$30.5k	97%	183d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	LOW BUY No @ 97.1¢	$114.5k 3.2× usual	97%	184d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	MED BUY No @ 94¢	$47.0k	94%	185d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	MED BUY No @ 90.9¢	$81.1k 2.3× usual	91%	198d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢	$93.5k 2.6× usual	98%	198d ago	excluded
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	MED SELL Yes @ 85¢	$55.4k	15%	198d ago	missed
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$125.2k 3.5× usual	100%	209d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	MED BUY No @ 91¢	$74.7k 2.1× usual	91%	215d ago	called
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	LOW BUY Yes @ 89¢	$21.5k	89%	215d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	MED SELL No @ 86¢	$86.1k 2.4× usual	14%	218d ago	missed
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢	$24.8k	97%	222d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	MED BUY No @ 85¢	$166.3k 4.7× usual	85%	229d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 91.3¢	$18.9k	91%	229d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 90.9¢	$23.6k	91%	229d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	MED BUY No @ 90.9¢	$83.1k 2.4× usual	91%	230d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	MED BUY No @ 89¢	$31.4k	89%	239d ago	called
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢	$68.2k	97%	252d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 96¢	$13.4k	96%	253d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢	$13.2k	96%	253d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢	$41.1k	99%	256d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 90.8¢	$11.9k	91%	256d ago	called
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢	$39.0k	98%	257d ago	excluded
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$212.0k 6.0× usual	99%	264d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 90¢	$10.5k	90%	265d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 98.5¢	$29.6k	2%	274d ago	excluded
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢	$22.2k	97%	274d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 97.6¢	$41.2k	98%	277d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢	$10.3k	96%	278d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 95.6¢	$45.3k	96%	281d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 96.4¢	$55.3k	96%	282d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 87¢	$11.1k	87%	284d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 93¢	$36.1k	93%	284d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 96.2¢	$17.5k	96%	292d ago	called
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 93.9¢	$33.5k	94%	292d ago	called
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$128.9k 3.6× usual	100%	294d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 89¢	$26.7k	89%	295d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 96.3¢	$34.7k	96%	295d ago	called
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	MED BUY No @ 96.9¢	$38.4k	97%	295d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	MED BUY No @ 86¢	$25.8k	86%	336d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	MED BUY No @ 88¢	$26.4k	88%	337d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 92¢	$18.4k	92%	339d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	MED BUY No @ 89¢	$25.1k	89%	339d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	MED BUY No @ 96¢	$57.6k	96%	340d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	MED BUY No @ 95¢	$36.1k	95%	345d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED BUY Yes @ 88¢	$43.9k	88%	397d ago	called
US recession in 2025?	MED SELL No @ 70¢	$12.2k	30%	485d ago	missed
US recession in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 75¢	$13.1k	75%	487d ago	called

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