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What this means. A wallet put $41.1k on No, at a price that gave it a 99% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+6.5 pts over 23 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$41.1k
BUY No @ 99.1¢ · 41,445 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteLate (<1h before start)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet aff3 took No (buy) for $41.1k at an average 99.1¢. At that price the market implied a 99% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $41.1k+1
Near-certain price-2
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 99¢ means
99%chance the market gave
−10449American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 99.1¢
- Implied odds
- 99.1%
- Size
- $41.1k
- Placed
- Feb 10, 02:20 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- aff3
- Tx
- 0xc0cd7a28…
This wallet's graded record
22/23+6.5 pts
expected 20.5 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $16.5k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $75.4k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $350.0k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $22.1k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $51.8k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $17.9k | excluded |