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What this means. A wallet put $41.2k on No, at a price that gave it a 98% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+6.5 pts over 23 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$41.2k
BUY No @ 97.6¢ · 42,187 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet aff3 took No (buy) for $41.2k at an average 97.6¢. At that price the market implied a 98% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $41.2k+1
Near-certain price-2
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 98¢ means
98%chance the market gave
−4032American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 97.6¢
- Implied odds
- 97.6%
- Size
- $41.2k
- Placed
- Jan 20, 04:39 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- aff3
- Tx
- 0xdeb1eba9…
This wallet's graded record
22/23+6.5 pts
expected 20.5 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +2 ptsNo price · entry 97.6¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $17.1k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ | $30.2k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $33.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $78.3k 2.4× usual |
excluded |