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tutrucks

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.7 wins, so it did -16.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?−$11Yes · avg 92¢ → 91.5¢ · $2,000Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?−$320Yes · avg 3.3¢ → 2.5¢ · $879
Price-adjusted edge
-16.7 pts
Called / graded
3/4
Expected from price
3.7
Flagged volume
$1.95M
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$16.4k
Last 30 days −$1,177 · $15.00M volume · 10,923 trades · since Sep 10, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$22.7k
Open P&L · 6 positions
−$6,417
Closed-position win rate
61%
175 closed
Wallet age · markets
409d
172 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Economy221.8+9.5 pts
Other211.9-42.8 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 92¢ $18.4k92% 112d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢ $74.6k
3.3× usual
100% 132d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 98.6¢ $15.3k1% 140d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $96.2k
4.3× usual
99% 143d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 98.1¢ $95.1k
4.3× usual
2% 143d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $137.0k
6.1× usual
0% 144d agoexcluded
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ $13.1k0% 145d agoexcluded
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢ $10.0k1% 148d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 97.4¢ $16.5k97% 149d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 95.2¢ $10.5k5% 154d agomissed
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?MED SELL No @ 95.1¢ $39.8k5% 159d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 98¢ $47.7k
2.1× usual
2% 159d agoexcluded
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ $19.5k98% 159d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $10.3k95% 164d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 98.2¢ $19.6k2% 164d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 96.9¢ $13.2k97% 165d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 97.4¢ $12.1k97% 167d agoexcluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ $25.0k100% 175d agoexcluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ $40.9k99% 177d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 96.3¢ $19.3k96% 178d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $29.8k1% 183d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $52.6k
2.4× usual
98% 190d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ $19.4k97% 194d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $10.3k94% 197d agocalled
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $299.5k
13.4× usual
100% 197d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ $239.9k
10.8× usual
100% 199d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $48.3k
2.2× usual
100% 199d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY No @ 96.4¢ $15.3k96% 201d agomissed
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY No @ 98¢ $49.0k
2.2× usual
98% 204d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 88¢ $55.4k
2.5× usual
88% 216d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 95.6¢ $35.8k96% 224d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $30.2k0% 265d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $33.0k0% 265d agoexcluded
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 90¢ $14.3k90% 294d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 89¢ $89.0k
4.0× usual
89% 295d agocalled
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 98¢ $12.7k2% 351d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 98¢ $14.8k2% 351d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 96¢ $15.0k4% 363d agomissed
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 96.5¢ $10.0k4% 364d agomissed
Xi Jinping out in 2025?MED BUY No @ 93¢ $40.6k93% 367d agocalled
Xi Jinping out in 2025?MED SELL No @ 94¢ $25.4k6% 387d agomissed
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 94¢ $10.3k6% 391d agomissed
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 94¢ $10.3k6% 391d agomissed
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 93¢ $57.8k
2.6× usual
93% 406d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 92¢$18.4k
LOW tutrucks · 112d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.5¢$74.6k
LOW tutrucks · 132d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 98.6¢$15.3k
LOW tutrucks · 140d ago
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.2¢$96.2k
LOW tutrucks · 143d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 98.1¢$95.1k
LOW tutrucks · 143d ago
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$137.0k
LOW tutrucks · 144d ago
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.6¢$13.1k
LOW tutrucks · 145d ago
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.1¢$10.0k
LOW tutrucks · 148d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 97.4¢$16.5k
LOW tutrucks · 149d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?missed
SELL No @ 95.2¢$10.5k
LOW tutrucks · 154d ago
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?excluded
SELL No @ 95.1¢$39.8k
MED tutrucks · 159d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 98¢$47.7k
LOW tutrucks · 159d ago
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?excluded
BUY No @ 97.5¢$19.5k
LOW tutrucks · 159d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?called
BUY No @ 95¢$10.3k
LOW tutrucks · 164d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?excluded
SELL No @ 98.2¢$19.6k
LOW tutrucks · 164d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 96.9¢$13.2k
LOW tutrucks · 165d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 97.4¢$12.1k
LOW tutrucks · 167d ago
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.6¢$25.0k
LOW tutrucks · 175d ago
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.4¢$40.9k
LOW tutrucks · 177d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?called
BUY No @ 96.3¢$19.3k
LOW tutrucks · 178d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded
SELL No @ 99.3¢$29.8k
LOW tutrucks · 183d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded
BUY No @ 98.5¢$52.6k
LOW tutrucks · 190d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?called
BUY No @ 96.9¢$19.4k
LOW tutrucks · 194d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?called
BUY No @ 94¢$10.3k
LOW tutrucks · 197d ago
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$299.5k
LOW tutrucks · 197d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.6¢$239.9k
LOW tutrucks · 199d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$48.3k
LOW tutrucks · 199d ago
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?missed
BUY No @ 96.4¢$15.3k
LOW tutrucks · 201d ago
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded
BUY No @ 98¢$49.0k
LOW tutrucks · 204d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?called
BUY No @ 88¢$55.4k
LOW tutrucks · 216d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?called
BUY No @ 95.6¢$35.8k
LOW tutrucks · 224d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$30.2k
LOW tutrucks · 265d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$33.0k
LOW tutrucks · 265d ago
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?missed
BUY No @ 90¢$14.3k
LOW tutrucks · 294d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 89¢$89.0k
LOW tutrucks · 295d ago
Xi Jinping out in 2025?excluded
SELL No @ 98¢$12.7k
LOW tutrucks · 351d ago
Xi Jinping out in 2025?excluded
SELL No @ 98¢$14.8k
LOW tutrucks · 351d ago
Xi Jinping out in 2025?missed
SELL No @ 96¢$15.0k
LOW tutrucks · 363d ago
Xi Jinping out in 2025?missed
SELL No @ 96.5¢$10.0k
LOW tutrucks · 364d ago
Xi Jinping out in 2025?called
BUY No @ 93¢$40.6k
MED tutrucks · 367d ago
Xi Jinping out in 2025?missed
SELL No @ 94¢$25.4k
MED tutrucks · 387d ago
Xi Jinping out in 2025?missed
SELL No @ 94¢$10.3k
LOW tutrucks · 391d ago
Xi Jinping out in 2025?missed
SELL No @ 94¢$10.3k
LOW tutrucks · 391d ago
Xi Jinping out in 2025?called
BUY No @ 93¢$57.8k
LOW tutrucks · 406d ago

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