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+$301No · avg 96.1¢ → 98.7¢ · $11.3k−$17No · avg 92¢ → 91.5¢ · $3,083−$15No · avg 86¢ → 86¢ · $2,565+$4No · avg 98¢ → 98.3¢ · $1,241+$2No · avg 98.6¢ → 98.9¢ · $724+$31No · avg 74¢ → 78¢ · $615−$2Yes · avg 96.6¢ → 96.2¢ · $547+$9No · avg 88¢ → 90¢ · $509
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.0 wins, so it did +0.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+0.5 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
2.0
Flagged volume
$144.5k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$173.7k
Last 30 days +$805 · $6.16M volume · 13,636 trades · since Jun 29, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$204.6k
Open P&L · 15 positions
+$310
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
482d
925 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 2 | 2.0 | +0.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | LOW BUY No @ 98¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | LOW BUY No @ 96.4¢ | $13.8k | called |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $19.9k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $18.8k | called |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢ | $19.5k | called |
 Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW SELL No @ 93¢ | $17.1k | missed |
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