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wkmfa518

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did +5.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+5.8 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.9
Flagged volume
$7.72M
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$132.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $36.15M volume · 11,782 trades · since Jul 07, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$132.0k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
81%
154 closed
Wallet age · markets
474d
150 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Politics110.9+8.3 pts
Economy111.0+3.4 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?HIGH SELL Yes @ 92¢ $176.2k
5.5× usual
8% 96d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 94¢ $15.4k6% 96d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 61¢ $42.9k39% 102d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢ $21.5k80% 107d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 79¢ $230.2k
7.2× usual
21% 108d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 91¢ $163.8k
5.1× usual
91% 112d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢ $30.6k90% 113d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ $14.3k99% 135d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 97.7¢ $33.9k2% 140d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 97.8¢ $10.0k2% 141d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 97.4¢ $34.4k3% 141d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 97.5¢ $18.0k3% 141d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 97.5¢ $30.7k2% 141d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 97.4¢ $51.4k3% 142d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 97.2¢ $35.0k3% 149d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 97.5¢ $14.3k3% 149d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $16.6k0% 149d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $15.1k99% 160d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 98.8¢ $32.5k1% 161d agoexcluded
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?MED SELL No @ 94¢ $28.2k6% 161d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $19.2k96% 161d agocalled
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $28.5k95% 161d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 98.6¢ $21.6k1% 163d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?MED BUY No @ 95¢ $26.6k95% 164d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 98.4¢ $14.7k2% 164d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 98.5¢ $10.7k2% 165d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?MED BUY No @ 95¢ $99.3k
3.1× usual
95% 165d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $70.8k
2.2× usual
95% 165d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 98.6¢ $14.9k1% 165d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $10.3k95% 165d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 98.1¢ $68.0k
2.1× usual
2% 166d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 97.7¢ $10.3k2% 170d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $26.2k94% 172d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?MED BUY No @ 96.2¢ $90.5k
2.8× usual
96% 172d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?MED SELL No @ 94¢ $188.0k
5.9× usual
6% 172d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?MED SELL No @ 91.3¢ $43.3k9% 173d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $17.0k94% 173d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 97¢ $20.8k97% 173d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $47.0k94% 174d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $47.0k94% 175d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ $30.4k98% 175d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 93¢ $93.0k
2.9× usual
93% 175d agocalled
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $29.9k100% 177d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ $15.7k99% 184d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ $17.9k99% 184d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ $10.9k1% 185d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 98.8¢ $13.8k1% 185d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ $21.2k1% 185d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ $11.8k97% 193d agoexcluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.2¢ $17.3k1% 194d agoexcluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $31.7k1% 194d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 96.2¢ $19.6k96% 199d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?MED BUY No @ 96.8¢ $139.8k
4.4× usual
97% 205d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $64.0k1% 251d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?MED SELL No @ 99.4¢ $261.2k
8.1× usual
1% 251d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢ $49.5k1% 254d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ $21.6k99% 255d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ $57.2k99% 256d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ $108.6k
3.4× usual
99% 258d agoexcluded
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ $46.9k1% 259d agoexcluded
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $40.9k1% 259d agoexcluded
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.3¢ $98.4k
3.1× usual
1% 259d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $41.5k99% 259d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $64.4k
2.0× usual
99% 259d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $19.9k1% 259d agoexcluded
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $19.9k100% 259d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $79.8k
2.5× usual
100% 259d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $26.7k99% 260d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $78.3k
2.4× usual
100% 266d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $19.9k0% 267d agoexcluded
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $18.4k99% 268d agoexcluded
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.6¢ $36.9k99% 268d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 96.6¢ $78.0k
2.4× usual
97% 287d agocalled
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL No @ 99.5¢ $486.1k
15.1× usual
1% 287d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $406.1k
12.6× usual
99% 292d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL No @ 99.1¢ $441.1k
13.7× usual
1% 294d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ $148.7k
4.6× usual
99% 295d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 99¢ $320.7k
10.0× usual
99% 295d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $25.9k100% 299d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $68.8k
2.1× usual
0% 300d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $12.2k0% 300d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $24.9k100% 301d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99¢ $11.8k1% 303d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $30.2k0% 304d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $32.6k1% 306d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $69.0k
2.1× usual
0% 306d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $11.8k1% 310d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $19.9k1% 311d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $10.0k1% 311d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $29.9k1% 311d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?MED SELL No @ 99.4¢ $149.7k
4.7× usual
1% 313d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $109.3k
3.4× usual
1% 317d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $58.0k99% 317d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $454.9k
14.2× usual
100% 321d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $130.0k
4.0× usual
1% 322d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $10.7k99% 332d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $12.9k99% 332d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?MED BUY No @ 99.2¢ $322.4k
10.0× usual
99% 332d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?MED SELL No @ 99.3¢ $270.5k
8.4× usual
1% 332d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 98.3¢ $24.5k2% 334d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 98.3¢ $55.1k2% 334d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 98.5¢ $15.2k2% 334d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 98.4¢ $16.2k2% 335d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ $120.0k
3.7× usual
98% 352d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 97.6¢ $48.8k98% 352d agoexcluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?MED BUY Yes @ 93.7¢ $82.9k
2.6× usual
94% 353d agoexcluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?MED BUY Yes @ 92.9¢ $45.2k93% 353d agoexcluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?MED BUY Yes @ 91.7¢ $67.2k
2.1× usual
92% 354d agocalled

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