← Wallets
+$4,398No · avg 89¢ → 98¢ · $49.0k+$5,294No · avg 82¢ → 93.5¢ · $43.3k+$2,093No · avg 88¢ → 96.9¢ · $23.8k+$2,930No · avg 82¢ → 97¢ · $19.5k+$3,522No · avg 77¢ → 96¢ · $17.7k+$1,920No · avg 70¢ → 90¢ · $8,685+$269No · avg 90¢ → 94.8¢ · $5,269+$334No · avg 87¢ → 94.5¢ · $4,142
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 6 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 7.1 wins, so it did -13.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-13.9 pts
Called / graded
6/8
Expected from price
7.1
Flagged volume
$658.6k
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$74k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 6 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? at 88¢) and the edge is -17.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
60–80¢
0% vs 73% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 94% · n=6
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$812.5k
Last 30 days +$1,467 · $36.99M volume · 96,864 trades · since Jan 01, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$978.4k
Open P&L · 61 positions
−$1.40M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
661d
1303 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 8 | 6 | 7.1 | -13.9 pts |
History
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