What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 15 of 18. The prices it paid implied about 14.7 wins, so it did +1.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 18 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +1.0 pts. Information, not advice.How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+1.5 pts
Called / graded
15/18
Expected from price
14.7
Flagged volume
$5.53M
Sample size18 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±6.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$111k
18 graded bets in the order they resolved · 15 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Xi Jinping out in 2025? at 90¢) and the edge is +1.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 3% · n=1
20–40¢
0% vs 30% · n=1
40–60¢
0% vs 45% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 93% · n=15
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$2.29M
Last 30 days −$0 · $344.59M volume · 183,365 trades · since Jun 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
