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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +3.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+3.5 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$111.5k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$3,163
Last 30 days +$0 · $412.1k volume · 225 trades · since Oct 24, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$3,163
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
90%
20 closed
Wallet age · markets
365d
19 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +3.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | MED BUY No @ 96.5¢ | $30.8k | called |
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.1¢ | $80.7k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xc9314d…