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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.0 wins, so it did -4.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-4.9 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$727.0k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$138.6k
Last 30 days +$9 · $7.47M volume · 41,077 trades · since Sep 10, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$675.6k
Open P&L · 6 positions
−$736
Closed-position win rate
82%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
408d
1614 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | -4.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $82.4k | excluded |
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ | $72.7k | excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $169.5k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢ | $120.4k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | MED SELL Yes @ 91.9¢ | $27.3k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 98.9¢ | $64.3k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢ | $60.7k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ | $49.6k | excluded |
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | MED SELL No @ 95.1¢ | $52.8k | missed |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 96.8¢ | $12.4k | excluded |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
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