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IlIIllIIIllIIl

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did -95.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-95.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$2.26M
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$36.9k
Last 30 days +$0 · $6.90M volume · 3,149 trades · since Dec 25, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
−$36.9k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$1
Closed-position win rate
76%
93 closed
Wallet age · markets
303d
80 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other100.9-95.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢ $57.5k95% 229d agomissed
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?LOW SELL Yes @ 91.4¢ $12.8k9% 229d agocalled
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?LOW BUY Yes @ 89¢ $32.3k89% 229d agomissed
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 98¢ $24.2k2% 238d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 89¢ $14.5k89% 238d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?MED SELL No @ 48¢ $54.3k52% 238d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 84¢ $94.2k
2.8× usual
84% 238d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?MED SELL No @ 94.5¢ $94.1k
2.8× usual
5% 238d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?MED BUY No @ 94.2¢ $93.8k
2.8× usual
94% 238d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?MED SELL No @ 96.9¢ $77.4k
2.3× usual
3% 240d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $36.2k96% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 15¢ $15.0k85% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 18¢ $21.8k18% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 98.1¢ $85.4k
2.6× usual
2% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ $52.1k98% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $70.5k
2.1× usual
99% 242d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?MED SELL No @ 96.2¢ $57.7k4% 242d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $19.2k94% 244d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $82.4k
2.5× usual
99% 244d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 17¢ $15.0k83% 244d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $66.9k
2.0× usual
99% 245d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?MED SELL No @ 89¢ $25.7k11% 245d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?MED SELL No @ 93.9¢ $36.3k6% 245d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 90.4¢ $21.4k90% 247d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 84¢ $31.9k84% 247d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 39¢ $23.2k39% 247d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 15¢ $23.4k85% 248d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 18¢ $24.6k18% 248d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?MED SELL No @ 86¢ $96.2k
2.9× usual
14% 250d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $10.9k86% 253d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 83¢ $28.5k83% 254d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 98.2¢ $20.7k2% 254d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $74.3k
2.2× usual
96% 255d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98¢ $56.0k98% 256d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?MED SELL No @ 95¢ $47.4k5% 257d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 93¢ $21.7k7% 257d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ $14.8k98% 258d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 93¢ $20.3k7% 258d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 90¢ $33.3k90% 259d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 97.6¢ $64.2k2% 261d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $17.4k96% 263d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?MED BUY No @ 94¢ $52.7k94% 263d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $81.4k
2.4× usual
99% 265d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ $79.3k
2.4× usual
97% 265d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $74.8k
2.2× usual
95% 265d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?MED SELL No @ 94.3¢ $63.2k6% 265d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 52¢ $12.7k48% 267d agomissed
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 88¢ $47.9k88% 270d agocalled
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ $32.1k98% 271d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ $17.9k52% 272d agocalled
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $30.1k100% 273d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?missed
BUY Yes @ 95¢$57.5k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 229d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?called
SELL Yes @ 91.4¢$12.8k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 229d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?missed
BUY Yes @ 89¢$32.3k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 229d ago
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded
SELL Yes @ 98¢$24.2k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 238d ago
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded
BUY Yes @ 89¢$14.5k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 238d ago
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 48¢$54.3k
MED IlIIllIIIllIIl · 238d ago
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 84¢$94.2k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 238d ago
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 94.5¢$94.1k
MED IlIIllIIIllIIl · 238d ago
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 94.2¢$93.8k
MED IlIIllIIIllIIl · 238d ago
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 96.9¢$77.4k
MED IlIIllIIIllIIl · 240d ago
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 96¢$36.2k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 241d ago
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded
SELL Yes @ 15¢$15.0k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 241d ago
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded
BUY Yes @ 18¢$21.8k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 241d ago
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 98.1¢$85.4k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 241d ago
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.4¢$52.1k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 241d ago
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.9¢$70.5k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 242d ago
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 96.2¢$57.7k
MED IlIIllIIIllIIl · 242d ago
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 94¢$19.2k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 244d ago
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99¢$82.4k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 244d ago
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded
SELL Yes @ 17¢$15.0k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 244d ago
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.2¢$66.9k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 245d ago
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 89¢$25.7k
MED IlIIllIIIllIIl · 245d ago
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 93.9¢$36.3k
MED IlIIllIIIllIIl · 245d ago
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 90.4¢$21.4k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 247d ago
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 84¢$31.9k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 247d ago
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded
BUY Yes @ 39¢$23.2k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 247d ago
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded
SELL Yes @ 15¢$23.4k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 248d ago
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded
BUY Yes @ 18¢$24.6k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 248d ago
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 86¢$96.2k
MED IlIIllIIIllIIl · 250d ago
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 86¢$10.9k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 253d ago
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 83¢$28.5k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 254d ago
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 98.2¢$20.7k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 254d ago
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 96¢$74.3k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 255d ago
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98¢$56.0k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 256d ago
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 95¢$47.4k
MED IlIIllIIIllIIl · 257d ago
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 93¢$21.7k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 257d ago
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.4¢$14.8k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 258d ago
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 93¢$20.3k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 258d ago
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 90¢$33.3k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 259d ago
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 97.6¢$64.2k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 261d ago
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 96¢$17.4k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 263d ago
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 94¢$52.7k
MED IlIIllIIIllIIl · 263d ago
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99¢$81.4k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 265d ago
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 96.9¢$79.3k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 265d ago
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 95¢$74.8k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 265d ago
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 94.3¢$63.2k
MED IlIIllIIIllIIl · 265d ago
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?missed
SELL Yes @ 52¢$12.7k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 267d ago
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?called
BUY No @ 88¢$47.9k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 270d ago
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97.5¢$32.1k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 271d ago
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?called
BUY Yes @ 52¢$17.9k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 272d ago
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$30.1k
LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 273d ago

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