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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.3 wins, so it did +18.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+18.5 pts
Called / graded
4/4
Expected from price
3.3
Flagged volume
$131.4k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$67.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.32M volume · 813 trades · since Mar 20, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$67.1k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
100%
7 closed
Wallet age · markets
218d
7 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 4 | 4 | 3.3 | +18.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $18.9k | called |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 96.6¢ | $22.4k | called |
 US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 78¢ | $70.2k 3.3× usual |
called |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $20.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x340b37…