← Wallets
−$1,869No · avg 48¢ → 32¢ · $3,921 · 0 proven with, 1 against−$1,348Yes · avg 47¢ → 32¢ · $3,020−$1,096Yes · avg 15¢ → 8.5¢ · $1,465−$34Yes · avg 22¢ → 16¢ · $103+$6Yes · avg 1.3¢ → 2.6¢ · $12−$11Yes · avg 5.5¢ → 1.7¢ · $5
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 33 of 59. The prices it paid implied about 35.5 wins, so it did -4.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (-4.3 pts over 59 bets). Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-4.3 pts
Called / graded
33/59
Expected from price
35.5
Flagged volume
$3.23M
Sample size59 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±6.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$193k59 graded bets in the order they resolved · 33 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (76ers vs. Celtics at 12¢) and the edge is -5.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
100% vs 14% · n=2
20–40¢
0% vs 27% · n=1
40–60¢
45% vs 50% · n=29
60–80¢
56% vs 69% · n=18
80–100¢
89% vs 88% · n=9
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$390.4k
Last 30 days −$610 · $215.51M volume · 896,647 trades · since Feb 01, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$20.77M
Open P&L · 14 positions
−$6,808
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
630d
13449 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 59 | 33 | 35.5 | -4.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 34¢ | $17.5k | missed |
 Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-24? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $151.9k 7.4× usual |
excluded |
 Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 44¢ | $29.2k | missed |
| Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-24? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $10.1k | called |
| Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-24? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $36.0k | called |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 51¢ | $62.1k 3.0× usual |
missed |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | MED BUY Hawks @ 49¢ | $43.0k 2.1× usual |
called |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Rockets @ 67¢ | $87.0k 4.3× usual |
missed |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 16¢ | $15.9k | called |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | LOW BUY 76ers @ 12¢ | $12.8k | called |
 Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $10.6k | called |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 72¢ | $12.5k | missed |
| Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 49¢ | $42.6k 2.1× usual |
missed |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 84¢ | $22.1k | called |
 Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $14.5k | called |
| Warriors vs. Suns | LOW BUY Suns @ 57¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 82¢ | $37.4k | called |
| Magic vs. 76ers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 50¢ | $15.5k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Suns | LOW BUY Suns @ 57¢ | $28.0k | excluded |
 Hurricanes vs. Islanders | LOW BUY Islanders @ 58¢ | $12.0k | missed |
| Capitals vs. Blue Jackets | LOW BUY Blue Jackets @ 55¢ | $12.3k | missed |
| Magic vs. Celtics | LOW BUY Magic @ 85¢ | $53.3k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
 Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $12.3k | called |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW BUY No @ 49¢ | $12.6k | missed |
| Magic vs. Celtics | MED BUY Magic @ 85¢ | $133.4k 6.5× usual |
missed |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW BUY No @ 48¢ | $22.8k | missed |
 Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $13.2k | called |
| Penguins vs. Devils | LOW BUY Penguins @ 50¢ | $10.6k | called |
| Oilers vs. Sharks | LOW BUY Sharks @ 50¢ | $11.9k | missed |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? | LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $13.3k | excluded |
| Kings vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Warriors @ 90¢ | $12.3k | excluded |
| Hornets vs. Celtics | MED BUY Hornets @ 36¢ | $83.1k 4.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? | LOW BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $10.6k | called |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? | LOW BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $24.9k | called |
| Heat vs. Raptors | LOW BUY Heat @ 49¢ | $12.2k | missed |
| Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 68¢ | $11.3k | excluded |
| Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW BUY Connecticut Huskies @ 27¢ | $11.6k | missed |
| Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 53¢ | $21.3k | excluded |
| Wizards vs. Heat | LOW BUY Heat @ 95¢ | $60.0k 2.9× usual |
called |
| Spurs vs. Clippers | MED BUY Clippers @ 54¢ | $38.4k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Clippers @ 52¢ | $13.1k | missed |
| Ducks vs. Sharks | LOW BUY Sharks @ 49¢ | $23.0k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 54¢ | $20.0k | called |
| Spread: Heat (-9.5) | MED BUY Heat @ 46¢ | $28.3k | excluded |
| Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines | MED BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 76¢ | $96.7k 4.7× usual |
called |
| Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats | LOW BUY Arizona Wildcats @ 71¢ | $76.5k 3.7× usual |
called |
| Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats | LOW BUY Purdue Boilermakers @ 31¢ | $21.4k | missed |
 Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies | MED BUY Michigan State Spartans @ 46¢ | $76.6k 3.8× usual |
missed |
| Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers | LOW BUY Purdue Boilermakers @ 77¢ | $13.1k | excluded |
| Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | MED BUY Iowa Hawkeyes @ 47¢ | $78.1k 3.8× usual |
excluded |
| Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers | LOW BUY Purdue Boilermakers @ 75¢ | $14.8k | called |
| Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | MED BUY Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 54¢ | $42.8k 2.1× usual |
missed |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars | LOW BUY Houston Cougars @ 60¢ | $12.4k | missed |
| Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans | MED SELL Michigan State Spartans @ 99.9¢ | $335.5k 16.4× usual |
excluded |
| Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans | LOW BUY Michigan State Spartans @ 68¢ | $13.7k | excluded |
| Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans | MED BUY Michigan State Spartans @ 65¢ | $93.9k 4.6× usual |
excluded |
| Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes | LOW BUY Miami Hurricanes @ 55¢ | $33.3k | excluded |
| Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes | LOW BUY Miami Hurricanes @ 52¢ | $20.6k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Hawks | LOW BUY Hawks @ 58¢ | $15.6k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Hawks | LOW BUY Hawks @ 59¢ | $13.9k | called |
| Timberwolves vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 56¢ | $24.5k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? | MED BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $38.5k | missed |
| Clippers vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Warriors @ 50¢ | $23.8k | missed |
| Clippers vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Warriors @ 48¢ | $24.0k | missed |
 Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $10.8k | missed |
| Rockets vs. Wizards | LOW BUY Rockets @ 90¢ | $37.9k | called |
| Rockets vs. Wizards | LOW BUY Rockets @ 90¢ | $35.0k | called |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | MED BUY Nuggets @ 57¢ | $44.1k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 59¢ | $10.1k | missed |
| Lakers vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Lakers @ 60¢ | $28.8k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Heat | LOW BUY Rockets @ 57¢ | $10.0k | missed |
| Lakers vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Lakers @ 62¢ | $18.1k | called |
| Nets vs. Celtics | LOW BUY Celtics @ 90¢ | $31.7k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 73¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
| Nets vs. Celtics | LOW BUY Celtics @ 92¢ | $10.2k | called |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 74¢ | $33.4k | called |
| Rockets vs. Magic | LOW BUY Magic @ 76¢ | $11.3k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 74¢ | $16.4k | called |
| Heat vs. 76ers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 55¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
 Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $28.6k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 76¢ | $34.2k | missed |
| 76ers vs. Pacers | MED SELL 76ers @ 99.9¢ | $136.0k 6.7× usual |
excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers | MED BUY Timberwolves @ 69¢ | $41.3k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| 76ers vs. Pacers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 95¢ | $14.6k | excluded |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans | LOW BUY Pelicans @ 48¢ | $21.8k | called |
| Thunder vs. Raptors | LOW BUY Raptors @ 53¢ | $11.9k | missed |
| Thunder vs. Raptors | LOW BUY Raptors @ 51¢ | $10.1k | missed |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢ | $12.1k | called |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $17.6k | called |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $27.2k | called |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $20.8k | called |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Spurs @ 69¢ | $15.1k | called |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Spurs @ 68¢ | $12.7k | called |
 Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW BUY Patriots @ 33¢ | $20.2k | missed |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 69¢ | $13.2k | called |
| 76ers vs. Clippers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 51¢ | $25.0k | called |
| 76ers vs. Clippers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 45¢ | $22.7k | called |
| Grizzlies vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Rockets @ 80¢ | $12.6k | called |
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