Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$579
Return on staked
+9.8%
Bets
33/59 won
Edge vs price
-4.3 pts ±6.0
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -2.3 pts (18/29). Newer half: -6.2 pts (15/30).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 26, 01:42 ESTMay 09, 01:47 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | 66¢ | missed | 168d ago |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | 44¢ | missed | 183d ago |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | 51¢ | missed | 183d ago |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | 49¢ | called | 184d ago |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | 67¢ | missed | 185d ago |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | 16¢ | called | 185d ago |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | 12¢ | called | 185d ago |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? | 77¢ | called | 186d ago |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | 72¢ | missed | 187d ago |
| Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | 49¢ | missed | 187d ago |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | 84¢ | called | 188d ago |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | 95¢ | called | 189d ago |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | 82¢ | called | 189d ago |
| Hurricanes vs. Islanders | 58¢ | missed | 193d ago |
| Capitals vs. Blue Jackets | 55¢ | missed | 193d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.