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What this means. A wallet put $22.8k on No, at a price that gave it a 48% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (-4.3 pts over 59 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$22.8k
BUY No @ 48¢ · 47,732 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10k2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet elkmonkey took No (buy) for $22.8k at an average 48¢. At that price the market implied a 48% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $22.8k+0
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 48¢ means
48%chance the market gave
+109American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 48¢
- Implied odds
- 47.8%
- Size
- $22.8k
- Placed
- Apr 11, 17:31 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 12, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- elkmonkey
- Tx
- 0xff7c8ae6…
This wallet's graded record
33/59-4.3 pts
expected 35.5 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -48 ptsNo price · entry 48¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $98.5k | excluded |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $49.5k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $39.7k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $17.9k | excluded |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $14.2k | excluded |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $87.3k 5.8× usual |
excluded |