← Wallets
+$9,278Yes · avg 44¢ → 73¢ · $23.0k−$1,867No · avg 33¢ → 30¢ · $17.6k+$2,592No · avg 44¢ → 53¢ · $15.3k−$968Yes · avg 31¢ → 29¢ · $12.5k−$3No · avg 73¢ → 73¢ · $10.4k+$240No · avg 95.2¢ → 97.7¢ · $9,384+$193No · avg 90¢ → 92.5¢ · $6,332+$641No · avg 81¢ → 90¢ · $6,219
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.5 wins, so it did -38.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-38.7 pts
Called / graded
1/4
Expected from price
2.5
Flagged volume
$174.7k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$114.7k
Last 30 days −$40.6k · $601.79M volume · 3,434,464 trades · since Sep 23, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$26.16M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$73.9k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
761d
150402 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 1 | 2.5 | -50.6 pts |
| Economy | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | -3.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 77¢ | $11.7k | called |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 88¢ | $14.1k | missed |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 86¢ | $13.8k | missed |
 Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 91¢ | $11.6k | excluded |
 Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $15.2k | excluded |
 Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $49.5k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $33.0k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢ | $12.9k | called |
 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 96.8¢ | $12.7k | missed |
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