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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.3 wins, so it did -26.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-26.8 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.3
Flagged volume
$113.4k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±44.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$116.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $968.4k volume · 498 trades · since Dec 10, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$69.9k
Open P&L · 18 positions
−$186.3k
Closed-position win rate
86%
7 closed
Wallet age · markets
318d
25 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -26.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $87.3k 5.8× usual |
excluded |
 Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | LOW BUY Yes @ 27¢ | $15.0k | missed |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 97¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xa25c6a…