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anoin123

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 19. The prices it paid implied about 2.8 wins, so it did +0.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 19 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -4.4 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?+$57.4kNo · avg 68¢ → 93.5¢ · $213.5kUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?+$1,470Yes · avg 77¢ → 78¢ · $123.1kUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?+$44.4kNo · avg 35¢ → 66¢ · $94.9kWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?−$16.9kNo · avg 60¢ → 48¢ · $64.6kUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?+$2,559Yes · avg 82¢ → 86¢ · $55.6kWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?+$8,573No · avg 29¢ → 35¢ · $54.4kIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?+$52Yes · avg 84¢ → 84¢ · $46.7kNetanyahu out by end of 2026?+$5,636No · avg 51¢ → 58¢ · $43.0k
Price-adjusted edge
+0.9 pts
Called / graded
3/19
Expected from price
2.8
Flagged volume
$2.33M
Sample size19 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±7.4 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$1.2M
19 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
−$177k$0$1.5M
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? at 4¢) and the edge is -4.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
17% vs 6% · n=12
20–40¢
0% vs 23% · n=6
60–80¢
100% vs 68% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$4.86M
Last 30 days +$526.7k · $125.39M volume · 229,891 trades · since Dec 29, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$9.15M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$2.83M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
299d
1345 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other1822.1-0.8 pts
Sports110.7+32.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?LOW SELL No @ 98.1¢ $15.2k2% 35d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?LOW SELL No @ 98.8¢ $18.8k1% 38d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $165.3k
7.2× usual
0% 60d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ $40.2k1% 66d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $30.4k0% 73d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $10.3k1% 186d agoexcluded
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $25.0k0% 191d agoexcluded
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $20.2k1% 193d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 98.6¢ $56.4k
2.4× usual
1% 194d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW SELL No @ 76¢ $17.6k24% 197d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 97.5¢ $13.9k2% 197d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 98.4¢ $23.7k2% 197d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 86¢ $23.4k14% 199d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 92¢ $15.3k8% 199d agomissed
Netanyahu out by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ $15.4k1% 199d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $60.9k
2.6× usual
1% 209d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $34.1k1% 210d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ $14.2k1% 210d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $11.1k1% 211d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 76¢ $12.9k24% 213d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 98.6¢ $26.6k1% 213d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 98.2¢ $31.4k2% 214d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 98.2¢ $32.7k2% 214d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 98.3¢ $22.7k2% 214d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 97¢ $25.0k3% 218d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 96.6¢ $20.9k3% 218d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?MED SELL No @ 77¢ $67.5k
2.9× usual
23% 225d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?MED SELL No @ 88¢ $45.1k12% 225d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by March 31?MED SELL No @ 75¢ $36.1k25% 225d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 95.1¢ $16.1k5% 225d agomissed
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 97.7¢ $21.3k2% 225d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?MED SELL No @ 95.1¢ $55.0k
2.4× usual
5% 225d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 76¢ $19.0k24% 226d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?MED SELL No @ 94.2¢ $41.3k6% 226d agomissed
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 97.2¢ $11.3k3% 226d agoexcluded
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 98¢ $88.8k
3.9× usual
2% 227d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW SELL No @ 98¢ $18.0k2% 238d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?MED BUY No @ 94¢ $141.0k
6.1× usual
94% 238d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢ $12.7k97% 239d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $22.4k99% 240d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $14.2k100% 244d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢ $13.0k98% 245d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $12.4k0% 247d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $146.5k
6.4× usual
0% 247d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW SELL No @ 95.8¢ $10.7k4% 252d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?MED SELL No @ 96.3¢ $54.3k
2.4× usual
4% 252d agocalled
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ $19.9k97% 256d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $15.1k96% 256d agoexcluded
Seahawks vs. PatriotsLOW BUY Seahawks @ 68¢ $85.0k
3.7× usual
68% 257d agocalled
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $26.3k99% 264d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $15.1k99% 264d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 90¢ $14.4k90% 264d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98¢ $44.3k98% 265d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ $99.6k
4.3× usual
0% 265d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 97.6¢ $19.8k98% 266d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?MED BUY Yes @ 84¢ $74.5k
3.2× usual
84% 266d agocalled
US government shutdown Saturday?MED BUY Yes @ 66¢ $82.9k
3.6× usual
66% 267d agocalled
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW SELL No @ 47¢ $20.4k53% 267d agocalled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?MED SELL No @ 95¢ $35.6k5% 274d agomissed
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 96.9¢ $14.5k3% 274d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?MED SELL No @ 94¢ $31.9k6% 276d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?MED SELL No @ 80¢ $95.5k
4.1× usual
20% 282d agomissed
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?excluded
SELL No @ 98.1¢$15.2k
LOW anoin123 · 35d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?excluded
SELL No @ 98.8¢$18.8k
LOW anoin123 · 38d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$165.3k
LOW anoin123 · 60d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.2¢$40.2k
LOW anoin123 · 66d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$30.4k
LOW anoin123 · 73d ago
Netanyahu out by April 30?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$10.3k
LOW anoin123 · 186d ago
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$25.0k
LOW anoin123 · 191d ago
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?excluded
SELL No @ 99.3¢$20.2k
LOW anoin123 · 193d ago
Netanyahu out by April 30?excluded
SELL No @ 98.6¢$56.4k
LOW anoin123 · 194d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?missed
SELL No @ 76¢$17.6k
LOW anoin123 · 197d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded
SELL No @ 97.5¢$13.9k
LOW anoin123 · 197d ago
Netanyahu out by April 30?excluded
SELL No @ 98.4¢$23.7k
LOW anoin123 · 197d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?missed
SELL No @ 86¢$23.4k
LOW anoin123 · 199d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?missed
SELL No @ 92¢$15.3k
LOW anoin123 · 199d ago
Netanyahu out by April 30?excluded
SELL No @ 98.7¢$15.4k
LOW anoin123 · 199d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$60.9k
LOW anoin123 · 209d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$34.1k
LOW anoin123 · 210d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.2¢$14.2k
LOW anoin123 · 210d ago
Netanyahu out by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.3¢$11.1k
LOW anoin123 · 211d ago
US forces enter Iran by March 31?missed
SELL No @ 76¢$12.9k
LOW anoin123 · 213d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 98.6¢$26.6k
LOW anoin123 · 213d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 98.2¢$31.4k
LOW anoin123 · 214d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 98.2¢$32.7k
LOW anoin123 · 214d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 98.3¢$22.7k
LOW anoin123 · 214d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 97¢$25.0k
LOW anoin123 · 218d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?missed
SELL No @ 96.6¢$20.9k
LOW anoin123 · 218d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?missed
SELL No @ 77¢$67.5k
MED anoin123 · 225d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?missed
SELL No @ 88¢$45.1k
MED anoin123 · 225d ago
US forces enter Iran by March 31?missed
SELL No @ 75¢$36.1k
MED anoin123 · 225d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?missed
SELL No @ 95.1¢$16.1k
LOW anoin123 · 225d ago
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 97.7¢$21.3k
LOW anoin123 · 225d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?missed
SELL No @ 95.1¢$55.0k
MED anoin123 · 225d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?missed
SELL No @ 76¢$19.0k
LOW anoin123 · 226d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?missed
SELL No @ 94.2¢$41.3k
MED anoin123 · 226d ago
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 97.2¢$11.3k
LOW anoin123 · 226d ago
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 98¢$88.8k
LOW anoin123 · 227d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?excluded
SELL No @ 98¢$18.0k
LOW anoin123 · 238d ago
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 94¢$141.0k
MED anoin123 · 238d ago
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97.4¢$12.7k
LOW anoin123 · 239d ago
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$22.4k
LOW anoin123 · 240d ago
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$14.2k
LOW anoin123 · 244d ago
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97.8¢$13.0k
LOW anoin123 · 245d ago
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$12.4k
LOW anoin123 · 247d ago
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$146.5k
LOW anoin123 · 247d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?called
SELL No @ 95.8¢$10.7k
LOW anoin123 · 252d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?called
SELL No @ 96.3¢$54.3k
MED anoin123 · 252d ago
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 96.8¢$19.9k
LOW anoin123 · 256d ago
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 96¢$15.1k
LOW anoin123 · 256d ago
Seahawks vs. Patriotscalled
BUY Seahawks @ 68¢$85.0k
LOW anoin123 · 257d ago
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$26.3k
LOW anoin123 · 264d ago
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$15.1k
LOW anoin123 · 264d ago
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 90¢$14.4k
LOW anoin123 · 264d ago
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98¢$44.3k
LOW anoin123 · 265d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.6¢$99.6k
LOW anoin123 · 265d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
BUY Yes @ 97.6¢$19.8k
LOW anoin123 · 266d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?called
BUY Yes @ 84¢$74.5k
MED anoin123 · 266d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?called
BUY Yes @ 66¢$82.9k
MED anoin123 · 267d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?called
SELL No @ 47¢$20.4k
LOW anoin123 · 267d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?missed
SELL No @ 95¢$35.6k
MED anoin123 · 274d ago
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?missed
SELL No @ 96.9¢$14.5k
LOW anoin123 · 274d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?missed
SELL No @ 94¢$31.9k
MED anoin123 · 276d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?missed
SELL No @ 80¢$95.5k
MED anoin123 · 282d ago

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