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What this means. A wallet put $54.5k on No, at a price that gave it a 76% chance. It won. This wallet has only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$54.5k
BUY No @ 76¢ · 71,719 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet Merlin11111 took No (buy) for $54.5k at an average 76¢. At that price the market implied a 76% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $54.5k+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 76¢ means
76%chance the market gave
−317American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 76¢
- Implied odds
- 76.0%
- Size
- $54.5k
- Placed
- Mar 20, 10:54 EDT
- Market close
- Mar 30, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Merlin11111
- Tx
- 0x86be3249…
This wallet's graded record
2/2+20.5 pts
expected 1.6 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +24 ptsNo price · entry 76¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $47.6k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $41.2k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $249.8k 9.3× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $97.4k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $48.8k 2.4× usual |
excluded |