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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.6 wins, so it did +20.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+20.5 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.6
Flagged volume
$298.3k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$117.8k
Last 30 days +$0 · $880.7k volume · 407 trades · since Mar 18, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$117.8k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$5
Closed-position win rate
100%
7 closed
Wallet age · markets
220d
8 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | +20.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Netanyahu out by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 99¢ | $67.8k | excluded |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ | $35.4k | excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by March 31? | MED BUY No @ 83¢ | $42.6k | called |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 76¢ | $54.5k | called |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢ | $98.0k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xc09d4f…