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+$39.8kNo · avg 88¢ → 97.8¢ · $381.6k+$2,459No · avg 90.8¢ → 91.5¢ · $309.4k+$2,280Yes · avg 90.4¢ → 91.5¢ · $187.6k+$5,954No · avg 81¢ → 97.4¢ · $34.4k+$350No · avg 60¢ → 64¢ · $6,350+$1,014No · avg 29¢ → 39¢ · $3,980+$950Yes · avg 29¢ → 38¢ · $3,850+$75No · avg 41¢ → 42¢ · $2,125
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did +3.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+3.5 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.9
Flagged volume
$393.1k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$100.1k
Last 30 days +$14.6k · $2.75M volume · 1,066 trades · since Oct 04, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$55.5k
Open P&L · 12 positions
+$42.6k
Closed-position win rate
95%
19 closed
Wallet age · markets
385d
31 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1.9 | +3.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ | $15.9k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98.6¢ | $18.3k | excluded |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96¢ | $33.7k | called |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $99.7k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | MED BUY No @ 97¢ | $82.9k 2.7× usual |
called |
 Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ | $99.4k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 96.3¢ | $28.4k | called |
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