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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.3 wins, so it did -26.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-26.2 pts
Called / graded
1/5
Expected from price
2.3
Flagged volume
$424.4k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.9 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$87k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Counter-Strike: FURIA vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca at 67¢) and the edge is -40.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 5% · n=1
40–60¢
0% vs 49% · n=2
60–80¢
50% vs 64% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$96.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $6.09M volume · 3,323 trades · since Jan 05, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$25.5k
Open P&L · 26 positions
−$328.5k
Closed-position win rate
50%
189 closed
Wallet age · markets
292d
281 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 1 | 2.3 | -31.5 pts |
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | -4.8 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xa69d0c…