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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 3.9 wins, so it did +1.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -6.5 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+1.5 pts
Called / graded
4/8
Expected from price
3.9
Flagged volume
$765.0k
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$123k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Penguins vs. Utah at 42¢) and the edge is -6.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
50% vs 48% · n=8
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.85M
Last 30 days +$0 · $148.68M volume · 120,793 trades · since Mar 09, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$30.50M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$21.11M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
229d
5572 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 8 | 4 | 3.9 | +1.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? | LOW BUY No @ 51¢ | $18.4k | excluded |
 Spread: Rockets (-4.5) | MED BUY Lakers @ 48¢ | $66.8k 2.3× usual |
called |
| Hornets vs. Magic | LOW BUY Magic @ 71¢ | $13.1k | excluded |
 Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? | MED BUY No @ 58¢ | $107.5k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
 Oilers vs. Sharks | MED BUY Sharks @ 49¢ | $29.2k | missed |
| Timberwolves vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5 | MED BUY Under @ 48¢ | $79.8k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
 Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-03? | MED BUY No @ 43¢ | $36.2k | excluded |
| Ducks vs. Sharks | MED BUY Sharks @ 51¢ | $127.1k 4.4× usual |
called |
| Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) | LOW BUY Warriors @ 50¢ | $22.5k | missed |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 51¢ | $11.8k | missed |
| Wild vs. Panthers | MED BUY Panthers @ 41¢ | $41.0k | missed |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? | MED BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $164.0k 5.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? | LOW BUY No @ 55¢ | $13.8k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Hawks | LOW BUY Hawks @ 56¢ | $22.9k | called |
| Penguins vs. Utah | LOW BUY Penguins @ 42¢ | $11.0k | called |
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