← Wallets
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 4.2 wins, so it did -2.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-2.0 pts
Called / graded
4/9
Expected from price
4.2
Flagged volume
$1.87M
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$434k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-01-28? at 22¢) and the edge is -12.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
100% vs 22% · n=1
40–60¢
29% vs 46% · n=7
60–80¢
100% vs 74% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.20M
Last 30 days +$0 · $507.84M volume · 395,471 trades · since Nov 07, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$39.94M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$36.54M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
351d
1341 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 8 | 4 | 3.8 | +3.0 pts |
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | -42.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev | LOW BUY Flavio Cobolli @ 14¢ | $14.2k | excluded |
 Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | MED BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $284.1k 6.5× usual |
missed |
 Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY No @ 74¢ | $44.6k | called |
 Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 54¢ | $12.0k | called |
| Pistons vs. Magic | LOW BUY Magic @ 39¢ | $43.4k | excluded |
 Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 0.4¢ | $16.1k | excluded |
 Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 0.6¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
 Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 0.3¢ | $10.8k | excluded |
| Hornets vs. Magic | LOW BUY Magic @ 41¢ | $53.0k | called |
| Magic vs. 76ers | MED BUY Magic @ 50¢ | $181.8k 4.2× usual |
excluded |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED SELL No @ 84¢ | $150.1k 3.5× usual |
missed |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 83¢ | $442.5k 10.2× usual |
called |
| Spurs vs. Clippers | MED BUY Clippers @ 51¢ | $90.2k 2.1× usual |
missed |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves | MED BUY Pistons @ 55¢ | $220.6k 5.1× usual |
excluded |
| Magic vs. Hawks | LOW BUY Magic @ 42¢ | $10.2k | missed |
| Timberwolves vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 43¢ | $12.1k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Warriors @ 40¢ | $26.9k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Pistons | MED BUY Pistons @ 52¢ | $220.2k 5.1× usual |
missed |
 Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-01-28? | MED BUY Yes @ 22¢ | $26.8k | called |
Share this record
<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0xbddf61af533ff524d27154e589d2d7a81510c684"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0xbddf61af533ff524d27154e589d2d7a81510c684.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>
JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xbddf61…