Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$118
Return on staked
+13.2%
Bets
4/9 won
Edge vs price
-2.0 pts ±16.0
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 28, 13:52 ESTMay 29, 13:19 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | 42¢ | missed | 148d ago |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | 74¢ | called | 152d ago |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | 54¢ | called | 154d ago |
| Hornets vs. Magic | 41¢ | called | 190d ago |
| Spurs vs. Clippers | 51¢ | missed | 205d ago |
| Magic vs. Hawks | 42¢ | missed | 222d ago |
| Lakers vs. Warriors | 40¢ | missed | 238d ago |
| Spurs vs. Pistons | 52¢ | missed | 243d ago |
| Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-01-28? | 22¢ | called | 269d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.