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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.6 wins, so it did +8.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+8.8 pts
Called / graded
4/4
Expected from price
3.6
Flagged volume
$314.2k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$156.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.61M volume · 823 trades · since Feb 23, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$154.8k
Open P&L · 6 positions
−$1,450
Closed-position win rate
70%
218 closed
Wallet age · markets
243d
210 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 4 | 4 | 3.6 | +8.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ | $134.1k 10.4× usual |
excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 93.8¢ | $42.8k 3.3× usual |
called |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 93.8¢ | $11.2k | called |
 U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $18.8k | called |
 Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | LOW SELL Timberwolves @ 99.9¢ | $12.1k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 91¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| Nets vs. Celtics | LOW SELL Celtics @ 99.9¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
 LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffs | LOW SELL LYON @ 99.9¢ | $13.6k | excluded |
| Heat vs. 76ers | LOW SELL 76ers @ 99.9¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. Nuggets | LOW SELL Nuggets @ 99.9¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Raptors | LOW SELL Thunder @ 99.9¢ | $18.2k | excluded |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $20.0k | called |
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