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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 4.1 wins, so it did -1.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-1.2 pts
Called / graded
4/5
Expected from price
4.1
Flagged volume
$1.49M
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$43k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? at 71¢) and the edge is -8.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
0% vs 57% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 71% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 93% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$40.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $7.40M volume · 1,451 trades · since Jul 30, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$40.1k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
68%
63 closed
Wallet age · markets
451d
58 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 3 | 2.6 | +11.9 pts |
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +15.0 pts |
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.6 | -57.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | MED BUY Yes @ 85¢ | $29.6k | called |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98.2¢ | $61.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢ | $93.5k | called |
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $394.8k 6.0× usual |
excluded |
 Trail Blazers vs. Suns | LOW BUY Suns @ 58¢ | $69.0k | excluded |
 Capitals vs. Blue Jackets | LOW BUY Blue Jackets @ 57¢ | $11.9k | missed |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $415.8k 6.3× usual |
excluded |
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | MED BUY No @ 97¢ | $114.9k | called |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | MED BUY No @ 96.5¢ | $206.0k 3.1× usual |
called |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | MED SELL Yes @ 87¢ | $35.2k | missed |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | MED SELL Yes @ 83¢ | $35.3k | missed |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 84¢ | $18.7k | called |
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