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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 3.7 wins, so it did +3.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -7.8 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+3.2 pts
Called / graded
4/8
Expected from price
3.7
Flagged volume
$315.7k
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$17k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Nuggets vs. Spurs at 20¢) and the edge is -7.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
100% vs 20% · n=1
20–40¢
0% vs 34% · n=1
40–60¢
60% vs 51% · n=5
60–80¢
0% vs 65% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$178.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $21.91M volume · 47,308 trades · since Mar 24, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$2.39M
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
214d
986 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 8 | 4 | 3.7 | +3.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Knicks vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 65¢ | $65.0k 3.0× usual |
missed |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW SELL Knicks @ 54¢ | $21.6k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 57¢ | $22.8k | called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW SELL Thunder @ 58¢ | $29.0k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW SELL Rockets @ 99.5¢ | $15.7k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Rockets @ 59¢ | $14.4k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | MED BUY Trail Blazers @ 34¢ | $26.6k | missed |
| Warriors vs. Suns | LOW BUY Warriors @ 44¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
| Warriors vs. Suns | LOW BUY Warriors @ 42¢ | $10.3k | missed |
| Nuggets vs. Spurs | LOW SELL Spurs @ 80¢ | $19.2k | called |
| Spurs vs. Clippers | MED BUY Clippers @ 50¢ | $42.3k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 54¢ | $26.3k | called |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Pistons @ 52¢ | $11.8k | called |
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