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What this means. A wallet put $42.0k on No, at a price that gave it a 84% chance. It won. This wallet has a proven record: +13.4 pts vs the price over 36 bets. A bet from a wallet like this is worth a look; one from a random whale usually isn't. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$42.0k
BUY No @ 84¢ · 50,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet Erasmus. took No (buy) for $42.0k at an average 84¢. At that price the market implied a 84% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $42.0k+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 84¢ means
84%chance the market gave
−525American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 84¢
- Implied odds
- 84.0%
- Size
- $42.0k
- Placed
- Mar 27, 17:00 EDT
- Market close
- Mar 30, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Erasmus.
- Tx
- 0x0236baac…
This wallet's graded record
29/36+13.4 pts
expected 24.2 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +16 ptsNo price · entry 84¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $47.6k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $41.2k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $249.8k 9.3× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $97.4k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $48.8k 2.4× usual |
excluded |