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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.8 wins, so it did +7.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+7.1 pts
Called / graded
3/3
Expected from price
2.8
Flagged volume
$276.9k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$17.4k
Last 30 days −$0 · $767.3k volume · 907 trades · since Mar 27, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$17.4k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
86%
7 closed
Wallet age · markets
211d
7 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 3 | 2.8 | +7.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $55.5k | excluded |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99¢ | $21.5k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ | $79.2k | excluded |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 96¢ | $17.3k | called |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 95.2¢ | $73.7k | called |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | MED BUY No @ 88¢ | $29.7k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x8837e1…