← Wallets
−$104.6kYes · avg 50¢ → 13¢ · $36.4k+$2,074No · avg 51¢ → 55¢ · $32.3k+$630No · avg 94¢ → 98.5¢ · $13.9k−$169No · avg 91.1¢ → 90¢ · $10.8k+$956No · avg 85¢ → 93.3¢ · $10.3k+$927No · avg 74¢ → 82¢ · $10.1k+$355Yes · avg 79¢ → 82¢ · $9,484−$630No · avg 89¢ → 82¢ · $8,371
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 12. The prices it paid implied about 4.3 wins, so it did +5.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 12 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -1.4 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+5.8 pts
Called / graded
5/12
Expected from price
4.3
Flagged volume
$533.9k
Sample size12 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$44k12 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? at 15¢) and the edge is -1.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
40% vs 12% · n=5
20–40¢
0% vs 24% · n=3
40–60¢
100% vs 52% · n=1
80–100¢
67% vs 81% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$498.5k
Last 30 days −$27.8k · $120.29M volume · 106,450 trades · since Jul 17, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.84M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$725.9k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
1177d
4187 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 3 | 2.6 | +9.3 pts |
| Crypto | 7 | 2 | 1.6 | +5.2 pts |
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | -3.7 pts |
History
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