← Wallets
−$4No · avg 91¢ → 88¢ · $89+$13Yes · avg 2.8¢ → 6¢ · $25−$4Yes · avg 4¢ → 3¢ · $13
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 16 of 18. The prices it paid implied about 12.2 wins, so it did +21.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 18 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +18.6 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+21.1 pts
Called / graded
16/18
Expected from price
12.2
Flagged volume
$12.27M
Sample size18 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$916k18 graded bets in the order they resolved · 16 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? at 36¢) and the edge is +18.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
100% vs 36% · n=1
40–60¢
60% vs 50% · n=5
60–80¢
100% vs 70% · n=7
80–100¢
100% vs 89% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$3.92M
Last 30 days −$0 · $477.31M volume · 197,077 trades · since Mar 02, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$47.77M
Open P&L · 498 positions
−$7.45M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
236d
3632 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 13 | 12 | 9.0 | +23.0 pts |
| Crypto | 2 | 1 | 1.1 | -5.0 pts |
| Other | 3 | 3 | 2.1 | +30.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Cavaliers vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 62¢ | $49.1k | excluded |
 Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A | LOW BUY BetBoom Team @ 62¢ | $31.1k | called |
 Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Mirra Andreeva | LOW BUY Coco Gauff @ 94¢ | $28.6k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Thunder @ 99¢ | $47.2k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 59¢ | $65.4k | excluded |
 Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢ | $16.5k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 40¢ | $23.7k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | MED BUY Spurs @ 42¢ | $72.0k | excluded |
 UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Khamzat Chimaev @ 80¢ | $27.3k | excluded |
| UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Sean Strickland @ 20¢ | $11.6k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | MED BUY Spurs @ 66¢ | $60.2k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Spurs @ 70¢ | $23.2k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 58¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 90¢ | $30.9k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | MED BUY Lakers @ 28¢ | $42.6k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 99.9¢ | $279.6k 6.6× usual |
excluded |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | MED BUY Knicks @ 75¢ | $43.6k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Lakers @ 15¢ | $13.5k | excluded |
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? | MED BUY Yes @ 78¢ | $49.8k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 25¢ | $23.9k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 80¢ | $160.4k 3.8× usual |
excluded |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 98.8¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | MED BUY 76ers @ 71¢ | $131.3k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | LOW BUY 76ers @ 58¢ | $21.1k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Magic | MED BUY Pistons @ 55¢ | $124.6k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | MED BUY Rockets @ 60¢ | $59.2k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 55¢ | $13.2k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | MED BUY Nuggets @ 69¢ | $107.4k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 32¢ | $19.2k | excluded |
| Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A | LOW BUY Astralis @ 44¢ | $22.9k | excluded |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 17¢ | $34.4k | called |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 83¢ | $126.4k 3.0× usual |
called |
 Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY Yes @ 3¢ | $16.1k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Magic | LOW BUY Magic @ 41¢ | $24.2k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Lakers @ 44¢ | $14.6k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Rockets @ 59¢ | $65.5k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | MED BUY 76ers @ 32¢ | $63.6k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | MED BUY Trail Blazers @ 68¢ | $33.2k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | HIGH BUY Spurs @ 70¢ | $290.0k 6.8× usual |
excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 23¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
 Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $13.2k | called |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Lakers @ 99¢ | $12.1k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Rockets @ 67¢ | $46.9k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | MED BUY Timberwolves @ 92.8¢ | $113.8k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | LOW BUY Hawks @ 65¢ | $10.7k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 20¢ | $12.1k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | MED BUY Knicks @ 37¢ | $32.8k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Pistons | MED BUY Pistons @ 99.7¢ | $280.9k 6.6× usual |
excluded |
| Magic vs. Pistons | MED BUY Pistons @ 75¢ | $59.1k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Magic @ 24¢ | $13.8k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 67¢ | $52.7k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | MED BUY Rockets @ 63¢ | $70.7k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 33¢ | $15.8k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 20¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Hawks @ 96¢ | $39.8k | excluded |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 69¢ | $30.1k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Rockets @ 45¢ | $62.1k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | MED BUY Lakers @ 30¢ | $206.5k 4.9× usual |
excluded |
| Warriors vs. Suns | LOW BUY Warriors @ 44¢ | $55.5k | excluded |
| Hornets vs. Magic | LOW BUY Hornets @ 59¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| Hornets vs. Magic | LOW BUY Hornets @ 58¢ | $17.9k | missed |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Clippers @ 67¢ | $25.7k | excluded |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Warriors @ 35¢ | $16.6k | excluded |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Clippers @ 70¢ | $20.9k | excluded |
| Magic vs. 76ers | MED BUY 76ers @ 53¢ | $79.3k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Suns | LOW BUY Suns @ 59¢ | $16.6k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Suns | LOW BUY Suns @ 61¢ | $25.7k | excluded |
| Heat vs. Hornets | MED BUY Heat @ 31¢ | $26.8k | excluded |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $28.9k | excluded |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A | LOW BUY Team Falcons @ 99.9¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
 Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees | MED BUY New York Yankees @ 60¢ | $230.0k 5.4× usual |
excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 34¢ | $19.6k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Celtics | MED BUY Celtics @ 79¢ | $187.4k 4.4× usual |
excluded |
| Magic vs. Celtics | MED BUY Magic @ 63¢ | $109.8k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals | LOW BUY Kansas City Royals @ 52¢ | $24.2k | excluded |
 Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 78¢ | $282.7k 6.6× usual |
called |
 Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner | MED BUY Carlos Alcaraz @ 50¢ | $218.2k 5.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW BUY Yes @ 36¢ | $10.4k | called |
 Penguins vs. Devils | LOW BUY Penguins @ 72¢ | $56.5k | excluded |
 Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW BUY No @ 97¢ | $39.8k | excluded |
 Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $67.4k | called |
| Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets | MED BUY Nuggets @ 50¢ | $47.2k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 49¢ | $27.6k | excluded |
| Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines | MED BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 90.6¢ | $120.1k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW BUY Arizona Wildcats @ 33¢ | $12.3k | excluded |
| Wizards vs. Heat | LOW BUY Heat @ 95¢ | $98.6k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Spurs @ 90¢ | $50.1k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Spurs @ 46¢ | $30.6k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Clippers @ 57¢ | $13.3k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Lakers | MED BUY Lakers @ 95.8¢ | $133.3k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| Suns vs. Grizzlies | MED BUY Suns @ 88¢ | $35.1k | excluded |
 Will France win on 2026-03-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 91¢ | $38.2k | excluded |
| Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 97¢ | $101.8k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats | MED BUY Arizona Wildcats @ 85¢ | $69.1k | excluded |
| Canucks vs. Flames | MED BUY Flames @ 62¢ | $72.0k | excluded |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | MED BUY Illinois Fighting Illini @ 63¢ | $123.2k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | MED BUY Iowa Hawkeyes @ 39¢ | $51.3k | excluded |
| Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats | LOW BUY Arizona Wildcats @ 71¢ | $86.8k 2.0× usual |
called |
| Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats | MED BUY Arizona Wildcats @ 70¢ | $817.0k 19.2× usual |
called |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | MED BUY Illinois Fighting Illini @ 73¢ | $1.09M 25.6× usual |
called |
 Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies | LOW BUY Connecticut Huskies @ 77¢ | $28.2k | excluded |
| Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies | MED BUY Connecticut Huskies @ 55¢ | $231.8k 5.4× usual |
called |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars | LOW BUY Houston Cougars @ 57¢ | $15.6k | excluded |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars | MED BUY Houston Cougars @ 57¢ | $1.10M 25.9× usual |
excluded |
| Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | MED BUY Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 65¢ | $189.2k 4.4× usual |
excluded |
| Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | MED BUY Iowa Hawkeyes @ 36¢ | $331.0k 7.8× usual |
excluded |
| Wild vs. Panthers | LOW BUY Panthers @ 40¢ | $27.6k | excluded |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars | MED BUY Illinois Fighting Illini @ 43¢ | $928.9k 21.8× usual |
excluded |
| Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers | MED BUY Purdue Boilermakers @ 75¢ | $331.7k 7.8× usual |
called |
| Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans | MED BUY Michigan State Spartans @ 82¢ | $63.6k | excluded |
| Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans | LOW BUY Michigan State Spartans @ 62¢ | $75.3k | called |
| Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans | LOW BUY Louisville Cardinals @ 38¢ | $35.7k | missed |
| Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes | MED BUY Missouri Tigers @ 46¢ | $217.8k 5.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? | MED BUY No @ 57¢ | $117.5k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Penguins vs. Utah | LOW BUY Penguins @ 42¢ | $12.8k | called |
| BNP Paribas Open: Jack Draper vs Daniil Medvedev | LOW BUY Daniil Medvedev @ 61¢ | $30.6k | called |
 Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? | LOW BUY No @ 70¢ | $36.6k | called |
| Timberwolves vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 56¢ | $42.5k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 85¢ | $17.0k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Celtics @ 42¢ | $42.1k | excluded |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | LOW BUY No @ 40¢ | $15.3k | missed |
| Golden Knights vs. Sabres | LOW BUY Sabres @ 57¢ | $55.5k | called |
| Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 | MED BUY Liquid @ 89¢ | $108.0k 2.5× usual |
called |
| Avalanche vs. Kings: O/U 6.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 45¢ | $92.9k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Celtics vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Bucks @ 43¢ | $58.0k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Celtics @ 56¢ | $78.9k | called |
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