Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$651
Return on staked
+36.2%
Bets
16/18 won
Edge vs price
+21.1 pts ±10.2
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +26.8 pts (8/9). Newer half: +15.5 pts (8/9).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Mar 03, 01:54 ESTMay 13, 11:52 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A | 62¢ | called | 164d ago |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 83¢ | called | 179d ago |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 83¢ | called | 179d ago |
| Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | 95¢ | called | 181d ago |
| Hornets vs. Magic | 58¢ | missed | 189d ago |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | 78¢ | called | 194d ago |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | 36¢ | called | 195d ago |
| Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? | 94¢ | called | 198d ago |
| Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats | 71¢ | called | 209d ago |
| Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats | 70¢ | called | 209d ago |
| Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies | 55¢ | called | 210d ago |
| Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers | 75¢ | called | 212d ago |
| Penguins vs. Utah | 42¢ | called | 223d ago |
| BNP Paribas Open: Jack Draper vs Daniil Medvedev | 61¢ | called | 225d ago |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? | 70¢ | called | 226d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.