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Wizards vs. Heatexcluded
What this means. A wallet put $98.6k on Heat, at a price that gave it a 95% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 18 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
Wizards vs. Heatexcluded$98.6k
BUY Heat @ 95¢ · 103,824 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteLate (<1h before start)2.3× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet 0x2a2c…9bc1 took Heat (buy) for $98.6k at an average 95¢. At that price the market implied a 95% chance for that side. The market resolved Heat. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $98.6k+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 95¢ means
95%chance the market gave
−1900American odds
$1.00paid per share if Heat wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 95¢
- Implied odds
- 95.0%
- As American odds
- −1900 no vig
- Size
- $98.6k
- Placed
- Apr 04, 15:15 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 04, 15:00 EDT
- Result
- Heat
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- 0x2a2c…9bc1
- Tx
- 0xdaf06f96…
This wallet's graded record
16/18+21.1 pts
expected 12.2 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +5 ptsHeat price · entry 95¢ · resolved Heat
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wizards vs. Heat | LOW SELL Heat @ 99.9¢ | $109.8k 4.2× usual |
excluded |
| Wizards vs. Heat | LOW SELL Heat @ 99.9¢ | $23.1k | excluded |
| Wizards vs. Heat | LOW BUY Heat @ 99.9¢ | $34.5k | excluded |
| Wizards vs. Heat | LOW BUY Heat @ 99.5¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| Wizards vs. Heat | LOW BUY Heat @ 99.4¢ | $29.3k | excluded |
| Wizards vs. Heat | LOW BUY Heat @ 97¢ | $23.0k | excluded |