← Wallets
+$9,793Yes · avg 75¢ → 94.5¢ · $47.2k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$1,368No · avg 80¢ → 91.5¢ · $11.3k−$15.8kYes · avg 65¢ → 20¢ · $6,850−$12.4kYes · avg 55¢ → 8.5¢ · $2,250 · 0 proven with, 1 against
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 7.5 wins, so it did -6.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-6.2 pts
Called / graded
7/8
Expected from price
7.5
Flagged volume
$1.90M
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±8.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$50k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Kings vs. Warriors at 89¢) and the edge is -8.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
80–100¢
88% vs 94% · n=8
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$336.7k
Last 30 days −$623 · $8.49M volume · 4,850 trades · since Dec 23, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$230.1k
Open P&L · 104 positions
−$502.5k
Closed-position win rate
90%
353 closed
Wallet age · markets
305d
449 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 3 | 3.7 | -16.6 pts |
| Economy | 4 | 4 | 3.8 | +4.2 pts |
History
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