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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 4.5 wins, so it did +10.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +8.7 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+10.7 pts
Called / graded
5/5
Expected from price
4.5
Flagged volume
$914.4k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$78k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US forces enter Iran by March 31? at 82¢) and the edge is +8.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
80–100¢
100% vs 89% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$46.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.14M volume · 956 trades · since Mar 17, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$46.3k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
50%
6 closed
Wallet age · markets
221d
6 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 5 | 5 | 4.5 | +10.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $18.0k | called |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | MED BUY No @ 82¢ | $246.0k 2.7× usual |
called |
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99¢ | $124.8k | excluded |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | MED BUY No @ 92.9¢ | $124.6k | called |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | MED BUY No @ 92.3¢ | $101.8k | called |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 98.8¢ | $131.1k | excluded |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 87¢ | $19.6k | called |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 96.6¢ | $14.9k | called |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | MED BUY No @ 96¢ | $91.9k | called |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 95.5¢ | $21.6k | called |
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