edenmoon

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.9 wins, so it did +2.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

+2.5 pts

Called / graded

3/4

Expected from price

2.9

Flagged volume

$807.0k

Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.6 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$1.69M

Last 30 days +$0 · $7.08M volume · 984 trades · since May 01, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$1.74M

Open P&L · 1 positions

−$50.2k

Closed-position win rate

73%

22 closed

Wallet age · markets

907d

22 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Politics	2	2	1.9	+7.0 pts
Other	1	0	0.1	-14.0 pts
Sports	1	1	0.9	+10.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	MED SELL No @ 95¢	$28.3k	5%	159d ago	missed
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?	MED SELL No @ 86¢	$37.5k	14%	216d ago	missed
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW BUY No @ 68¢	$16.9k	68%	230d ago	called
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-25?	LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢	$100.0k	90%	273d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED BUY Yes @ 91¢	$327.5k 4.8× usual	91%	359d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 95.1¢	$297.0k 4.3× usual	95%	363d ago	called

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?missed

SELL No @ 95¢$28.3k

MED edenmoon · 159d ago

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?missed

SELL No @ 86¢$37.5k

MED edenmoon · 216d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?called

BUY No @ 68¢$16.9k

LOW edenmoon · 230d ago

Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-25?called

BUY Yes @ 90¢$100.0k

LOW edenmoon · 273d ago

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called

BUY Yes @ 91¢$327.5k

MED edenmoon · 359d ago

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called

BUY Yes @ 95.1¢$297.0k

HIGH edenmoon · 363d ago

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