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Weekly report card

Week 2026-15

Apr 06, 00:00 EDT – Apr 12, 23:59 EDT · markets that resolved this week

Price-adjusted edge
-4.5 pts
Called
175/338
Expected from price
190.3
Std. error
±2.3

In week 2026-15, 338 graded flags resolved. The flagged side won 175 times; entry prices implied 190.3. Whales did no better than the price (-4.5 pts). One week is a small sample.

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other1758799.9-7.4 pts
Sports864047.1-8.2 pts
Politics774843.3+6.1 pts

Every graded flag

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWalletWhenResult
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?HIGH BUY No @ 47¢ $1.36M47% blindStaking198d agomissed
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan WolverinesHIGH BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 74¢ $980.2k
20.8× usual
74% Mentallyillgambld200d agocalled
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?HIGH BUY Yes @ 78¢ $282.7k
6.6× usual
78% 0x2a2c…9bc1194d agocalled
Magic vs. CelticsMED BUY Magic @ 85¢ $202.2k
5.5× usual
85% gatorr194d agomissed
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik SinnerMED BUY Jannik Sinner @ 52¢ $177.7k52% gfjoigfsjoigsjoi194d agocalled
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan WolverinesMED BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 74¢ $145.9k
3.6× usual
74% turkxbt200d agocalled
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11?MED SELL No @ 31¢ $145.6k
4.3× usual
69% UnderperformingForALivin195d agomissed
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?MED BUY Yes @ 92¢ $140.7k
4.6× usual
92% ROBBATTISTAFANDUELRETARD194d agocalled
Magic vs. CelticsMED BUY Magic @ 85¢ $133.4k
6.5× usual
85% elkmonkey194d agomissed
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?MED BUY No @ 85¢ $132.0k
6.4× usual
85% EddyAncogld205d agomissed
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5MED BUY Over @ 51¢ $110.3k51% ewelmealt200d agomissed
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07?MED BUY No @ 58¢ $102.3k58% ewelmealt200d agomissed
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?HIGH BUY No @ 72¢ $100.8k
2.0× usual
72% pcpc NEW196d agocalled
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY No @ 95.9¢ $95.2k
3.4× usual
96% aenews2 LOSING200d agomissed
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?MED BUY No @ 63¢ $88.9k63% 1337t NEW206d agocalled
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group StageMED BUY EYEBALLERS @ 43¢ $87.9k43% noMoohyun523200d agomissed
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?MED BUY No @ 83¢ $83.0k
3.9× usual
83% ScottyNooo PROVEN205d agomissed
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY No @ 93¢ $82.9k
3.5× usual
93% Istaroth205d agomissed
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?MED BUY No @ 44¢ $80.7k44% therighteousdog199d agomissed
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?MED BUY Yes @ 53¢ $77.3k
3.3× usual
53% frankfrankfrank198d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by April 30?MED SELL Yes @ 86¢ $76.1k14% 0x2B495203d agomissed
Nuggets vs. SpursHIGH SELL Spurs @ 81¢ $74.2k19% 233haha NEW194d agocalled
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?MED BUY No @ 24¢ $72.7k
2.0× usual
24% DrPufferfish194d agomissed
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $67.4k94% 0x2a2c…9bc1198d agocalled
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07?MED BUY No @ 57¢ $67.0k57% therighteousdog200d agomissed
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?MED BUY Yes @ 53¢ $67.0k
2.9× usual
53% frankfrankfrank198d agocalled
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?MED BUY No @ 45¢ $66.1k45% gransaaa LOSING199d agomissed
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?MED BUY No @ 66¢ $65.7k
3.3× usual
66% xdrxdr NEW204d agocalled
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?MED BUY No @ 69¢ $62.1k69% pcpc NEW197d agocalled
Nuggets vs. SpursMED SELL Spurs @ 81¢ $58.8k
2.3× usual
19% 98132wxc194d agocalled
Nuggets vs. SpursMED BUY Nuggets @ 20¢ $58.3k
2.1× usual
20% BunCaCham194d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by April 30?MED BUY Yes @ 84¢ $55.3k
2.8× usual
84% Cinibengales203d agocalled
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?LOW BUY No @ 89¢ $53.1k
2.5× usual
89% SlenderMan201d agomissed
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?HIGH BUY Yes @ 61¢ $52.0k61% sidechair1 NEW199d agocalled
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5MED BUY Over @ 51¢ $52.0k51% 0x0c6c…d39a NEW199d agomissed
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ $50.0k97% pako200d agomissed
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY No @ 93¢ $50.0k
2.4× usual
93% EddyAncogld205d agomissed
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?LOW BUY No @ 93.9¢ $50.0k
2.4× usual
94% EddyAncogld205d agomissed
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?LOW BUY No @ 72¢ $49.8k72% abracedabra195d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 47¢ $49.1k47% 0xf293…65ee205d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by April 30?MED SELL Yes @ 69¢ $47.6k
2.4× usual
31% 65765757208d agomissed
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?LOW BUY Yes @ 70¢ $46.8k70% 0x7b62…4c23197d agocalled
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?MED BUY Yes @ 53¢ $46.4k
2.0× usual
53% frankfrankfrank198d agocalled
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07?LOW BUY No @ 56¢ $43.6k56% therighteousdog200d agomissed
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?MED BUY Yes @ 53¢ $41.2k
3.7× usual
53% dingaaaa198d agocalled
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?MED BUY Yes @ 66¢ $40.0k66% 0x6edd…728c198d agocalled
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?LOW BUY No @ 69¢ $39.4k
2.2× usual
69% VoidEclipse214d agomissed
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?LOW BUY No @ 70¢ $38.9k70% steeplejack198d agocalled
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?MED SELL Yes @ 93.2¢ $38.7k7% 0x5925…b194199d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 38¢ $38.4k38% rdba210d agomissed
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $38.0k95% cqs205d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by April 30?MED BUY Yes @ 92.5¢ $37.0k93% westminster202d agocalled
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?LOW BUY No @ 37¢ $37.0k37% AssuredAdverts212d agomissed
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?HIGH BUY No @ 67¢ $36.9k67% pcpc NEW198d agocalled
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?MED SELL Yes @ 70¢ $35.9k30% ndb1 PROVEN195d agomissed
Nuggets vs. SpursMED BUY Nuggets @ 19¢ $35.4k19% Moneyloverman194d agocalled
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan WolverinesLOW BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 74¢ $35.2k74% hugesportswhale200d agocalled
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?LOW BUY No @ 82¢ $35.1k82% SlenderMan205d agomissed
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?LOW BUY Yes @ 72¢ $35.0k72% bambooo195d agocalled
Magic vs. CelticsLOW BUY Magic @ 79¢ $34.9k79% 0xf668…5c69195d agomissed
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?HIGH BUY Yes @ 38¢ $34.8k38% 0xeaf8…1711 NEW199d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ $34.8k58% inrock30215d agocalled
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢ $34.8k
3.2× usual
71% playwfire196d agocalled
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?LOW BUY No @ 71¢ $34.7k71% jocpolitic196d agocalled
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?HIGH BUY No @ 69¢ $34.5k69% pcpc NEW197d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by April 30?MED BUY Yes @ 82¢ $33.5k
2.3× usual
82% cashy203d agocalled
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5LOW BUY Over @ 51¢ $33.3k51% gransaaa LOSING199d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by April 30?MED SELL Yes @ 81¢ $32.8k19% pipian202d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 40¢ $32.5k40% wan123210d agomissed
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?MED SELL No @ 65¢ $31.7k35% Rhomboid NEW198d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 47¢ $30.0k47% 0xbe48…683f205d agomissed
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?LOW BUY No @ 74¢ $30.0k74% 33923189195d agocalled
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?MED BUY Yes @ 34¢ $29.4k34% AML205d agomissed
Oilers vs. SharksMED BUY Sharks @ 49¢ $29.2k49% CemeterySun198d agomissed
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?HIGH BUY Yes @ 28¢ $29.2k28% 0x9956…15ef NEW195d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ $29.0k58% trevors4215d agocalled
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?LOW BUY No @ 45¢ $28.4k45% gransaaa LOSING199d agomissed
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07?LOW BUY No @ 58¢ $28.2k58% hugesportswhale200d agomissed
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan WolverinesMED BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 74¢ $28.1k74% 0x4f84…eacb200d agocalled
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?MED BUY No @ 96.1¢ $28.1k96% 0xa9e8…c443200d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 55¢ $27.3k55% 768543265205d agocalled
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢ $27.1k71% BABELCONSTEL194d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 44¢ $26.8k44% betwick217d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by April 30?MED SELL Yes @ 55¢ $26.7k45% 0x39fb…32c7205d agomissed
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢ $26.4k65% mombil199d agocalled
Hornets vs. CelticsLOW BUY Celtics @ 66¢ $25.9k66% OggaBoo199d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 70¢ $25.9k70% pako208d agocalled
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?MED BUY Yes @ 53¢ $25.8k53% RegardedMoney PROVEN198d agocalled
Hornets vs. CelticsMED SELL Celtics @ 66¢ $25.0k34% 98132wxc199d agomissed
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢ $25.0k69% dwFqcd4Z205d agocalled
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?LOW BUY Yes @ 44¢ $24.9k44% b324u216d agocalled
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07?LOW BUY Yes @ 42¢ $24.9k42% elkmonkey199d agocalled
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢ $24.7k78% Dropper199d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢ $24.5k69% AWice204d agocalled
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?LOW BUY No @ 72¢ $24.5k72% 0xce1d…1b9b195d agocalled
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?MED SELL No @ 81¢ $24.4k19% fearthereaper7201d agocalled
Magic vs. CelticsLOW BUY Magic @ 85¢ $24.2k85% awalkinwallstreet194d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ $24.1k77% cashy203d agocalled
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?LOW BUY Yes @ 37¢ $23.9k37% 0xbe48…683f205d agomissed
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?LOW BUY Yes @ 92.7¢ $23.7k93% BrightStars199d agocalled

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Yesterday's biggest flags and how they graded. Misses included.