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+$4,235No · avg 81¢ → 97.6¢ · $24.2k+$981Yes · avg 81¢ → 85¢ · $21.0k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.1 wins, so it did -22.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-22.8 pts
Called / graded
1/5
Expected from price
2.1
Flagged volume
$978.5k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$72k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? at 86¢) and the edge is -32.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 19% · n=1
20–40¢
0% vs 31% · n=2
40–60¢
0% vs 47% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 86% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$19.6k
Last 30 days +$1,550 · $2.27M volume · 61 trades · since Jan 10, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$74.4k
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$54.7k
Closed-position win rate
80%
20 closed
Wallet age · markets
287d
24 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 4 | 1 | 1.8 | -19.3 pts |
| Politics | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | -36.8 pts |
History
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