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+$1,157Yes · avg 19¢ → 20¢ · $42.5k−$1,464Yes · avg 9¢ → 6.5¢ · $3,805+$92Yes · avg 45¢ → 95.7¢ · $174+$14Yes · avg 3¢ → 3.3¢ · $158
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 10. The prices it paid implied about 3.8 wins, so it did +2.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 10 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -6.5 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+2.0 pts
Called / graded
4/10
Expected from price
3.8
Flagged volume
$1.88M
Sample size10 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$286k10 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 22¢) and the edge is -6.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 5% · n=1
20–40¢
25% vs 31% · n=4
40–60¢
50% vs 47% · n=4
60–80¢
100% vs 62% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$627.8k
Last 30 days −$1,372 · $15.95M volume · 13,263 trades · since Jun 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$189.2k
Open P&L · 11 positions
−$433.2k
Closed-position win rate
44%
45 closed
Wallet age · markets
498d
58 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 3 | 2.1 | +14.3 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +37.8 pts |
| Politics | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | -34.5 pts |
History
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