← Wallets
+$90.1kNo · avg 50¢ → 85¢ · $220.1k+$8,553No · avg 82¢ → 97.5¢ · $53.7k−$90.1kYes · avg 50¢ → 15¢ · $39.9k+$300No · avg 90¢ → 91.5¢ · $18.3k+$3,320Yes · avg 3.9¢ → 5¢ · $14.7k+$2,131No · avg 80¢ → 94.5¢ · $14.2k+$864Yes · avg 59¢ → 68¢ · $6,863 · 1 proven with, 0 against+$1,250No · avg 69¢ → 86¢ · $6,516
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 9 of 17. The prices it paid implied about 8.8 wins, so it did +0.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 17 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -2.9 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+0.9 pts
Called / graded
9/17
Expected from price
8.8
Flagged volume
$770.2k
Sample size17 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.9 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$38k17 graded bets in the order they resolved · 9 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? at 37¢) and the edge is -2.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 10% · n=1
20–40¢
20% vs 30% · n=5
40–60¢
0% vs 49% · n=3
60–80¢
100% vs 69% · n=6
80–100¢
100% vs 84% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$524.9k
Last 30 days +$17.1k · $45.14M volume · 51,401 trades · since Jul 19, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.24M
Open P&L · 160 positions
+$25.9k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
827d
2936 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 15 | 7 | 7.2 | -1.1 pts |
| Economy | 2 | 2 | 1.7 | +16.3 pts |
History
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